The bookie’s team: Game Week 1 #FPL

Hi all, this is our weekly post on an FPL team which we manage throughout the season. The Bookie’s team is all about choosing a side based off of bookie’s odds and managing it throughout the season. Having finished 395,661st in the world last season (in the top 7%), we’re aiming to kick on from that and continue to rise up the ranks. Having learned lessons from last season and whilst continuing to do so, hopefully, we’ll get higher than that 7% finish. We did miss a few changes over Christmas because we have families and all that.

The team is selected based off of our Goalscorer Post and our Clean Sheet post, whilst also taking into account the fixtures that players have.

If you would like to join the league click the following link: https://fantasy.premierleague.com/?autojoin-code=1610717-365377

See our team below:

Goalkeeper

Alex McCarthy – Southampton – 4.5m

The former QPR man was named Southampton’s player of the season despite the fact he only played 18 games in the League for Southampton. It wasn’t even close with McCarthy winning the poll by a resounding margin. Southampton have spent big on young Angus Gunn over the summer, and the former Man City starlet won’t go away without a fight. The son of former Norwich legend Bryan Gunn is held in massively high regard and played 46 games for the Canaries last season while on loan. With competition also coming from a landpost named Fraser Forster, McCarthy will have to be on top of his game to keep his place. Given the stopper’s form at the end of the season, he should be the first choice. Southampton have a 47.19% chance of keeping a clean sheet, and if they do it will be largely thanks to McCarthy.

Defenders

Virgil van Dijk – Liverpool – 6.0m

Liverpool’s record signing Virgil van Dijk starts this season at a premium price of 6.0m. The Dutch stopper has a 51.89% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Virgil slightly edges it over the same priced Robertson, who only has an 11.48% chance of scoring in game week 1. Big Virgil meanwhile has a 13.46% chance of scoring. The most likely Liverpool scorer from the defence is Trent-Alexander Arnold. Though, with a fully fit Nathaniel Clyne now available for selection, its anyone’s guess who will start at right-back for Liverpool this season.

Christian Kabasele – Watford – 4.5m

Have you seen how many players Watford have in FPL? Defenders alone they have 12 players! So why am I choosing 1 from 12? Well, only 1 of them is nailed on and that is Kabasele. Watford have a nice start to the season playing Brighton, Burnley and Crystal Palace in their opening 3 fixtures and then have two horrid ones with Spurs and Man United up after. With Wan-Bissaka having fixtures against Southampton at home and Huddersfield away during those game-weeks an easy transition can be made between the two. Watford have a 38.27% chance of keeping a clean sheet in game week 1.

Luke Shaw – Man United – 5.0m

Where do I start with Luke Shaw? As a United fan, he absolutely devastates me. he can’t score, he can’t cross, he can’t do anything. But he is in a solid defensive unit and is likely to start a number of games this season. At 5.0m, and with a 53.56% chance of keeping a clean sheet, can you really ignore him? United only face one top-six rival in the opening eight games of the new campaign and its Spurs lads. With a good set of opening fixtures United could be likely to keep many clean sheets, and as long as Shaw doesn’t put a foot wrong, he could be one of the picks of the season.

Though its Luke Shaw, and he most likely will. Eric Bailly if you can stretch to 5.5m, is maybe a better shout, but according to the odds, Shaw is more likely to score and should be naturally higher up the pitch.

Midfielders

Mohamed Salah (C) – Liverpool – £13.0m 

Need I say more? The Egyptian was last season’s key player. He amassed a tally of 303 points over the season, a feat he’ll find hard to match in 2018/19. Having been knocked out of the world cup in the group stages he had a rest after the world cup. Since then he has been on fire in pre-season, even scoring a beautiful top corner shot against Napoli in his match in Dublin.

With a clean sheet probability of 51.89%, he is also likely to get clean sheet points as well score. With both fixtures last season ending 4-1 to Liverpool, with Salah scoring 3 in them, history states we’re likely to see a Salah goal in game week 1. The Egyptian has a 65.66% chance of scoring. The selection for captaincy is obvious due to his likelihood of scoring, the clean sheet chance, and the fact we’d be shitting ourselves if he was to score and we didn’t have him.

Alexis Sanchez (VC) – Man United – £10.5m

Alexis Sanchez was what Mohamed Salah was before Salah was a thing. The Chilean endured a poor first season at Man United with many fans questioning Mourinho for bringing him into the squad. A move which essentially pushed Anthony Martial (7.5m) to the periphery of the squad. With a 53.56% chance of a clean sheet and a 44.87% chance of scoring he is a good option for a captaincy pick. You’d be a brave soul to oppose going with Salah in game week 1, though.

Sadio Mané – Liverpool – £9.5m

Introducing Liverpool’s fastest winger Sadio Mane. I honestly believed that Sadio was set to have the season that Salah had last season. Given the red card against City, it seemed to derail that probability. Against West Ham, he has a 42.67% chance of scoring and a 51.89% of a clean sheet, which adds a little bit more value. One massive consideration that isn’t accounted for when thinking about last season’s repeated 4-1 results, is that Joe Hart is no longer in goal for West Ham. Which means they’ll probably only lose 3-1 now.

Richarlison – Everton – £6.5m

Richarlison reminded me of a sink tap last season, he ran hot and cold. In the first half of the season, he played like the immersion was on. While in the second half of the season, he played like he’d forgotten to turn the immersion on. The Brazilian struggled for fitness in the second half of the season. It was a toss-up between Everton’s £40m signing and Wolves’ Jota, but given Everton’s incredibly attractive set of opening fixtures, we feel its more likely for him to score in them rather than Jota in his respective fixtures. Everton have a 30.4% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Richarlison only has a 22.39% chance of scoring against Wolves away, but with fixtures against Southampton, Bournemouth, Huddersfield and West Ham coming up we expect Everton to perform well over the coming weeks. Better than Wolves anyway.

Forwards

Sergio Aguero – Man City – £11m

Should I? Shouldn’t I? There is great fear which comes with signing Aguero and it is named ‘rotation‘. After scoring twice in the Charity Shield, Pep should have little to no doubts about who City’s man main up top is next season. Sergio is tied first for being the most likely scorer from a forward alongside Harry Kane. Aguero is away to Arsenal, while Kane is away to Newcastle. Given the difficulty of the H2H and the probability of that fixture alone, you’d predict that Aguero will be shorter odds than Kane over the coming weeks. Sergio Aguero has a 51.12% chance of scoring in game week 1, expect that to be much higher next week!

Charlie Austin – Southampton – £6.0m

Charlie Austin guarantees you two things, goals and injuries. The current Leicester manager Claude Puel had a reluctance to using Austin due to a fear of him getting injured. Whilst manager of Southampton he also seemingly had a fear of scoring goals. Which is not something you’d associate with the ex-QPR hitman. At just under 50% chance of scoring and some decent fixtures, the Southampton striker should be in most budget forward lines. Chazza has a 49.46% chance of scoring in game week one, higher than Lukaku, Aubameyang, Morata, and his Southampton team-mate Manolo Gabbiadini. Massive value, and as a betting man I’d know Austin would appreciate it.

Aleksandar Mitrovic – Fulham – £6.5m

Mitrovic had an interesting last season. Its rare a player will drop down a division to guarantee his place in his country’s world cup squad. Mitrovic’s decision was vindicated, both in an increase of minutes and an increase of goals. The Serb was more known for his temperament while at Newcastle. Since his move to Fulham, he has seemed to calm down. The 23-year-old striker scored 12 times while on loan and averaged a goal every 1.5 games. A feat which would make him worth more than his 6.5m fee! He could be the focal point of the attack, and with Seri, Sessegnon, Cairney and Schurrle providing, there is a depth of talent at his disposal. Mitrovic has a 42.60% chance of scoring in game week 1, and with fixtures against Burnley and Brighton in his next 3, he could bag more than 1.

Just ignore Man City and Spurs in the first 5, okay? Raul Jimenez is looking all the more attractive all of a sudden.

BENCH

Vincente Guaita – Crystal Palace – £4.5m

The ex-Valencia stopper was once ranked as one of the best goalkeepers in Spain. Though, so was Willy Caballero, Victor Valdes, and Claudio Bravo, and look how that turned out. At 27.10% chance of keeping a clean sheet, he is our bench keeper this week. With some nice fixtures coming up for Guaita, we’ll be expecting McCarthy to drop to the bench. With Sahko and Tomkins in front of him, as well as Mili, there is a strong core to block the opposition offense.

Ryan Bennett – Wolves – £4.0m – 1st choice sub

Most had expected Romain Saiss to be the starter for Wolves this season. That was until he had a few poor performances in pre-season. Ryan Bennett has since usurped his role in a central defensive position for Wolves. With defensive-minded and experienced Portuguese internationals in front of him, Bennett is likely to have a lot of cover before the opposition gets to him. Wolves have a 37.26% chance of keeping a clean sheet in game week 1. Which makes Ryan Bennet our most likely point scorer from our substitutes and 1st choice sub.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka – Crystal Palace – £4.0m – 2nd choice sub

As a United fan, it hurt me last season when big Timbo Mensah got dropped in favour of Wan-Bissaka. The local lad dynamic and a modern full-back, also capable of attacking. His attacking will 100% be overshadowed by his Dutch teammate Patrick van Aanholt, Wan-Bissaka is a great enabler for bigger hitters. Ex-England manager Roy Hodgson has preferred him to Joel Ward (£4.5m) at right-back in five of their pre-season friendlies. With still a small enough percentage of ownership, his price could skyrocket! Palace have a 27.10% chance of keeping a clean sheet, which makes him 2nd choice sub.

Kevin McDonald – Fulham – £4.5m – 3rd choice sub

The 29-year-old defensive midfielder scored 3 times last season in 45 matches. McDonald averaged a yellow card every 4 games. McDonald also averaged a shot per game, which is decent from a more defensively minded midfielder. The Scot has a 33.06% chance to keep a clean sheet. He is of similar ilk to Romeu, Stephens and the sort, unlikely to score, but always guaranteed 2 points.

[Total: 35    Average: 2.7/5]

Paddy Keogh-Goode

I'm an avid fan of football and a season ticket holder for Bohemian FC in Ireland. I've supported Man United as long as I've known football, and tried to play until I was unable to. I used to work as a trader and have always had an interest in gambling. This website combines the two interests and hopefully helps a few others in making better decisions

Paddy Keogh-Goode

Paddy Keogh-Goode

I'm an avid fan of football and a season ticket holder for Bohemian FC in Ireland. I've supported Man United as long as I've known football, and tried to play until I was unable to. I used to work as a trader and have always had an interest in gambling. This website combines the two interests and hopefully helps a few others in making better decisions

2 thoughts on “The bookie’s team: Game Week 1 #FPL

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *