Hi everyone, this is a weekly blog post where we document changes to our team based on bookie’s odds. Having done this last season we’d like to think we’ve learned from our mistakes and aim to finish higher than our top 7% finish. This is not a wildcard XI or a team of the best possible players, this is an actual team which we have had since GW1 and have made changes to throughout the season. With the introduction and warning away, no to introduce to you the bookie’s team for Game Week 5. This post will review our changes and reason as to why we brought them in.
Currently, we’re 213,346th in the world and aim to be in the top 1% by the end of the season. All with the help of the bookies. To view the team, click on the following link: OddsonFPLTeam
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We had a good game week 4, rising over 100k places and scoring 56 points. Given Salah only scored 4 points for us as captain we missed out on choosing Aguero. Aguero would have netted us 12, but had we chosen Mané we’d have amassed 20 from the captaincy. We play by the rules with the OddsOn team, though, and will always choose who the bookies state is the most likely to score highly.
The one major doubt we’ve had all week has been Luke Shaw. After being knocked out against Spain in England’s 1-0 loss there has been plenty of discussion about his availability. Mourinho says Luke Shaw “could” play against Watford on Saturday which does clear up the ambiguity surrounding his injury and the required number of days, but he still could start Young if he was to play it safe. Given Shaw has arguably been United’s best player this season I’d think he is slightly more than 50% to start.
“We still have a training session [but] by the protocol point of view [six days clear] and according to our doctor, he will be free to play.”
Apart from that, we have a team which is fully fit. With a difficult fixture for Fulham away from home Mitrovic drops to second place in our bench. In spite of Watford’s good form, Kabasele also is placed on the bench in favour of rotation risk Alex Pritchard. Our transfer in last week Pedro was also benched but performed well when subbed on. We choose to captain Kun Aguero against a Fulham side who’ve been conceding a lot lately. With no clear favourite in goal for Fulham Aguero could come up against any of Fulham’s 3 decent stoppers. With over a 70% chance of scoring, I doubt any of them will think they have a chance of stopping him.
One of the obvious transfers this week was swapping out Salah for Hazard, but with Lloris being ruled out of the fixture it has given us confidence that Salah can perform away from home. With such a small difference in probability prior to the news and a fixture against Southampton at home next, we decided against moving him out. Chelsea have West Ham away next, a fixture in which Hazard will be 100% be less likely to score in than Salah or Sadio against Southampton.
We bravely start two 4.0m defenders also, with Bennett and Wan-Bissaka starting for two of the sides most likely to keep a clean sheet this week. Who says there isn’t value in the market. We have decided that given our XI, we’re banking a transfer. Some may consider it risky, but we’d be wasting a transfer to get Salah back in if we had sold him, and banking it allows for us to get rid of him in GW7 for his two tough fixtures. If Pritchard starts he’ll likely play in the hole and could score against Palace. Either way, with an XI in good health, Shaw potentially fit, we see no reason to make a transfer this week.
Expected Points: 57.19
Best Starting XI
Alex McCarthy – Southampton – 4.5 M – 3.73 Expected Points
Ryan Bennett – Wolves – 4.1 M – 4.38 Expected Points
Luke Shaw – Man United – 5.1 M – 4.06 Expected Points
Aaron Wan-Bissaka – Crystal Palace – 4.1 M – 3.88 Expected Points
John Stones – Man City – 5.5 M – 5.03 Expected Points
Pedro Rodríguez Ledesma – Chelsea – 6.8 M – 4.71 Expected Points
Mohamed Salah – Liverpool – 13 M – 5.59 Expected Points
Sadio Mané – Liverpool – 10 M – 4.41 Expected Points
Alex Pritchard – Huddersfield – 4.9 M – 3.64 Expected Points
Sergio Agüero (C)– Man City – 11.3 M – 6.49 (12.98) Expected Points
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – Arsenal – 10.9 M – 4.77 Expected Points
Vicente Guaita – Crystal Palace – 4.4 M – 1.47 Expected Points
Christian Kabasele – Watford – 4.5 M – 3.41 Expected Points
Aleksandar Mitrovic – Fulham – 6.7 M – 3.23 Expected Points
Kevin McDonald – Fulham – 4.4 M – 2.33 Expected Points