The bookie’s team: Game Week 4 #FPL

Hi everyone, this is a weekly blog post where we document changes to our team based on bookie’s odds. Having done this last season we’d like to think we’ve learnt from our mistakes and aim to finish higher than our top 7% finish. This is not a wildcard XI or a team of the best possible players, this is an actual team which we have had since GW1 and have made changes to throughout the season. With the introduction and warning away, no to introduce to you the bookie’s team for Game Week 3. This post will review our changes and reason as to why we brought them in.

Currently, we’re 332,586th in the world and aim to be in the top 1% by the end of the season. All with the help of the bookies. To view the team, click on the following link: OddsonFPLTeam

To join our league use the following code: Auto-Join Link

Last week was a perfect example of why a good bench is needed with one of our transferred in players in gameweek 3 being benched. With Alex Pritchard being benched it was also worrying when John Stones had suffered the same fate as many before him at City. With Wan-Bissaka being suspended we really couldn’t suffer another player not playing and were fortunate only two were benched. I had hoped to bank a transfer this game week, but with Richarlison’s red card as well as potential rotation pricks picks in our side our hand was forced.

In spite of the uncertainty, and generally, everyone having a bad week, we were saved by a glorious Serb. Mitrovic was phenomenal and Salah consistent as always. Without these two in our side our ranking could have been much lower. With our big hitters Aguero, Aubameyang and Mané all failing to net we knew we were in for a bad time. It would also help if one of our defenders could keep a clean sheet.

Our decision was made easy when looking at this week’s captaincy post and seeing Pedro was the 6th highest Expected points out of everyone. The move from Richarlison to Pedro would be 0.1m, and with 0.8m in the bank it makes sense. The 31-year-old has seemingly made the position his own having scored twice already this season. With Sarri on his side, he has shown his best form at Chelsea since signing him. Despite his position, he has a 43.36% chance of scoring this week, and Chelsea has a 49.45% chance of keeping a clean sheet, which could add him a point or two.

With our transfers in, our expected point tally for GW4 is 59.45! Good luck as always.

Staters:

Alex McCarthy – Southampton – £4.5 – 3.03 Expected Points

John Stones – Man City – £5.5 – 5.16 Expected Points

Luke Shaw – Man United – £5.1 – 4.57 Expected Points

Aaron Wan-Bissaka – Crystal Palace – £4.1 – 4.15 Expected Points

Christian Kabasele – Watford – £4.5 – 3.15 Expected Points

Mohamed Salah (C)– Liverpool – £13 – 6.63 Expected Points (13.26 as captain)

Sadio Mané – Liverpool – £9.9 – 4.99 Expected Points

Pedro – Chelsea – £6.7 – 5.43 Expected Points

Sergio Agüero (VC) – Man City – £11.3 – 6.55 Expected Points

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – Arsenal – £10.9 – 5.16 Expected Points

Aleksandar Mitrovic – Fulham – £6.6 – 3.99 Expected Points

Bench:

Vicente Guaita – Crystal Palace – £4.4 – 1.67 Expected Points

Alex Pritchard – Huddersfield – £5 – 3.12 Expected Points

Kevin McDonald – Fulham – £4.5 – 2.71 Expected Points

Ryan Bennett – Wolves – £4 – 2.58 Expected Points

[Total: 1    Average: 5/5]

Paddy Keogh-Goode

I'm an avid fan of football and a season ticket holder for Bohemian FC in Ireland. I've supported Man United as long as I've known football, and tried to play until I was unable to. I used to work as a trader and have always had an interest in gambling. This website combines the two interests and hopefully helps a few others in making better decisions

Paddy Keogh-Goode

Paddy Keogh-Goode

I'm an avid fan of football and a season ticket holder for Bohemian FC in Ireland. I've supported Man United as long as I've known football, and tried to play until I was unable to. I used to work as a trader and have always had an interest in gambling. This website combines the two interests and hopefully helps a few others in making better decisions

One thought on “The bookie’s team: Game Week 4 #FPL

  • August 31, 2018 at 1:41 pm
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    Aguero as captain in home against Newcastle seems very tempting. He scored lot of goals against Newcastle in prev matches. What do you think about this? With hazard getting 90 min pitch time and willian being preferred over pedro to start. Pedro might get only 25 to 30 min of game time. What about walcott? And alonso?

    Reply

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