The bookie’s team: Game Week 2 #FPL

Hi everyone, this is a weekly blog post where we document changes to our team based on bookie’s odds. Having done this last season we’d like to think we’ve learnt from our mistakes and aim to finish higher than our top 7% finish. This is not a wildcard XI or a team of the best possible players, this is an actual team which we have had since GW1 and have made changes to throughout the season. With the introduction and warning away, no to introduce to you the bookie’s team for Game Week 2.

Currently, we’re 61,388th in the world and aim to be in the top 1% by the end of the season. All with the help of the bookies. To view the team, click on the following link: OddsonFPLTeam

To join our league use the following code: Auto-Join Link

In game week one we smashed it! With 91 points we beat the average by 38 points. With the only players who failed to provide being our front line with Sergio Aguero, Charlie Austin and Mitrovic all firing blanks. Something we have in common. With our team in good condition and Richarlison shaking off the knock we’re in good health for game week 2.

gameweek 1 results

We make a singular move this week with John Stones coming in for Virgil van Dijk.

The decision was made on the basis of a number of reasons, one being City’s fixtures. With Huddersfield up next at home Man City look incredibly likely to keep a clean sheet. With Wolves, Newcastle, Fulham, Cardiff and Brighton to follow, it wouldn’t be massively impossible to imagine City keeping clean sheets in all of them.

The second reason is that currently, Stones is looking nailed on. A risky phrase when discussing City and Pep, of course. But given Pep’s demand to play it out from the back, Stones is the archetypal defender for Guardiola. As competent a passer as he is a tackler alongside Aymeric Laporte he created much from the back in almost a libero role.

The third reason was that we already half have Liverpool clean sheet coverage. This is thanks to Mane and Salah playing in midfield, meaning that we’ll only half miss out on clean sheet points from them if they are to keep a clean sheet against Crystal Palace. With Liverpool only having a 42.4% chance of keeping a clean sheet away from home, you’d be more likely to see them concede than stop Zaha and PvA from scoring. Liverpool’s probability of conceding would be even higher if Palace didn’t start Benteke!

Also, take into account the probability of City conceding against Huddersfield and you’ll struggle to find a more likely scenario all season long. With City a massive 69.40% chance of keeping a clean sheet in the fixture and with an average odds of 1.44 to keep a clean sheet, City are as good as nailed on to keep a cleanie in GW2.

Goalkeepers

Alex McCarthy – Southampton – 4.5m – 3.07 points

McCarthy showed his worth in game week 1 with 3 bonus points and saves galore. He retains his spot in goal ahead of the benched Vincente Guaita. With a tough fixture against Everton coming up I’d only be expecting save points in game week 2.

Defenders

Virgil van Dijk – Liverpool – 6.0m -> John Stones – Man City – 5.5m – 5.66 points

Van Dijk was industrious, demanding and a leader in the backline. Given those qualities, I’m sure he’ll accept being dropped for John Stones. A move which banks us 0.5m and allows us to buy into the Man City defence. The obvious move was van Dijk to Mendy earlier in the week and after missing him on the price rise we were kicking ourselves. We gain 1.18 points in bringing in Stones.

Christian Kabasele – Watford – 4.5m – 3.85 points

Watford kept a clean sheet! I’m amazed, it’s crazy what a half decent keeper can do. Kabasele was a rock and retains his position in our starting lineup.

Luke Shaw – Man United – 5.1m – 4.35 points

After such a disparaging review of Shaw’s abilities in our game week 1 post, he went out and shone. With his first career goal to boot, Shaw looked positive and attacked. He’ll retain his spot in United’s side and ours for at least one more week.

Midfielders

Mohamed Salah (C) – Liverpool – £13.0m – 6.76 (13.52 points)

Genuinely, a toss-up between Salah and Sergio Aguero could have decided who was this weeks captain. After flipping a coin 1001 times Salah won 501, whilst Aguero won 500. A close call but we’re certain of it.

Alexis Sanchez – Man United – £10.5m – 4.92 points

In game week 1, Alexis showed similar form to the form in which he was much maligned for in the 2017/18 season. With passes being wildly inconsistent and his general play is disjointed and poor. Despite winning a contentious penalty and getting into an argument with Pogba about who should take it, he did little else bar lose the ball. Hopefully, he shows what he is capable of in GW2.

Sadio Mané – Liverpool – £9.6m – 5.00 points

Not many would have had Sadio outperforming Salah in game week 1, but he did. With 2 goals to his name and a price rise, he has proven the doubters wrong. Given my prediction that he would outperform Mo Salah last season could this be the season in which my prediction comes correct? A broken clock is right twice a day, I suppose.

Richarlison – Everton – £6.6m – 4.18 points

Watford fans must be kicking themselves. After failing to score in what seems like years, the Brazilian came back with a bang and scored twice against Wolves whilst being a man short. He has a 29.41% chance of scoring. Richi could continue in his good vein of form against a Southampton side which conceded a lot of shots against a Burnley side who aren’t known for shooting away from home. Given the opportunity to shoot Richarlison never holds back.

Forwards

Sergio Aguero – Man City – £11m – 6.56 points

Aguero didn’t showcase his best form in game week 1. He missed a one-on-one against Petr Cech and could have easily slotted it to Kevin de Bruyne to finish off the move.

Charlie Austin – Southampton – £6.0m – 3.87 points

Looked poor, to be honest. Another good performance from Ings and his position in the starting XI could be under threat.

Aleksandar Mitrovic – Fulham – £6.5m – 3.32 points

He took free kicks, looked a threat, but against Spurs he is unlikely to do much.

BENCH

Vincente Guaita – Crystal Palace – £4.5m – 0.52 points

It was unexpected, to say the least that Guaita is second choice to Wayne Hennessey. Given the fact he wouldn’t have started for us in GW2 it postes little threat.

Ryan Bennett – Wolves – £4.0m – 2nd choice sub – 2.39 points

Bennett was arguably Wolves’ best defender against Everton, though that isn’t saying much. Likely to be dropped for Deondocker soon and a rotation risk. At 4.0m he is bench fodder.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka – Crystal Palace – £4.1m – 1st choice sub – 2.86 points

Can we chance placing him on the bench again! Given his 12 point haul in game week 1 Wan-Bissaka was transferred in and has lost his place as Fantasy Premier League’s best 4.0m signing.

Kevin McDonald – Fulham – £4.5m – 3rd choice sub – 2.49 points

[Total: 6    Average: 3/5]

Paddy Keogh-Goode

I'm an avid fan of football and a season ticket holder for Bohemian FC in Ireland. I've supported Man United as long as I've known football, and tried to play until I was unable to. I used to work as a trader and have always had an interest in gambling. This website combines the two interests and hopefully helps a few others in making better decisions

Paddy Keogh-Goode

Paddy Keogh-Goode

I'm an avid fan of football and a season ticket holder for Bohemian FC in Ireland. I've supported Man United as long as I've known football, and tried to play until I was unable to. I used to work as a trader and have always had an interest in gambling. This website combines the two interests and hopefully helps a few others in making better decisions

2 thoughts on “The bookie’s team: Game Week 2 #FPL

  • August 17, 2018 at 10:01 pm
    Permalink

    Are you keeping the vice on Sanchez? So everything is identical except VVD -> Stones?

    Reply
    • Paddy Keogh-Goode
      August 17, 2018 at 9:03 pm
      Permalink

      Vice is Aguero

      Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

error: Content is protected !!