In a similar feature to last year, we’re sharing with you who is this week’s most likely point scorers based on an algorithm we’ve created. The points are based on a player’s chance of scoring once, twice, three times a lady…. No sorry, just once and twice. As well as that we add defensive player’s clean sheet points and whether they’re expected to start or not. The variables for starting are ‘Yes’, ‘No’, and ‘Rotation’. With Yes giving a player 2 points, No 0, and Rotation 1. The points are taken from our Clean Sheet Probabilities post and our Goalscorer Probabilities post, both of which were shared earlier this week.
A midfielder will naturally get more points for scoring, as will a defender, while a forward only gets 4 points. This can often lead to a midfielder with 50% chance of scoring (50% x 5 = 2.5) ending up with a higher expected point tally than a forward with 60% chance of scoring (4 x 60% = 2.4).
In doing this we will give you who is The Bookie’s Captain for Gameweek 3.
#1 – Mohamed Salah – Liverpool – Expected Points 7.89!
Despite Brighton winning against Manchester United in game week 2 and causing a massive upset they’re unlikely to repeat the feat against Liverpool in gameweek 3. The Seagulls have still conceded an average of 2 goals per game. They come up against a Liverpool side which is known for scoring goals. Salah failed to score against Crystal Palace but was taken down when through on goal by Wan-Bissaka. Despite this, he won a penalty and assisted twice in FPL terms. Even though the midfielder amassed 9 points many managers could have felt Salah could have scored in the fixture. With an expectancy of 69.66% to score and the highest probability of keeping a clean sheet at 56.71%, you’d be mad to look elsewhere. Given he has almost a 2 point advantage over his closest competitor, you’d be daft to go for someone else this week.
#2 – Sadio Mané – Liverpool – Expected Points 5.95
The cheaper of Liverpool’s midfield assets has shone this season. The Senegal-geezer netted two against West Ham and scored a late goal to finish off Crystal Palace. With 3 goals to his name already you’d expect him to increase his tally against Brighton at home. Sadio created history against Palace being the only player to have scored in 3 consecutive games against the Eagles. A feat which is one for the record books. The 26-year-old has already played 150 times for Klopp’s side. With a 48.83% chance of scoring, he is ranked the second highest of the midfielders. No points for guessing who is higher. Having notched 26 points already you’d expect him to beat at least in the 30s after gameweek 3.
Sadio may be known for scoring and assisting, but last season he was also known for copying celebrations. With Firmino’s kung-fu kick being the notable one. Prepare to have your mind blow, but they were his creations all along!
“The fans deserve to know the truth,” he said in an exclusive interview with Copa90 . “Firmino copies me, not me copying him!
“The kick was me. We try it in training. He scored and I was behind him, and he did it.
“The dance with Philippe and Bobby was mine too!”
#3 – Sergio Aguero – Manchester City – Expected Points 5.9
Despite being away from home, and Jamie Jackson being a scaremonger, Aguero is nailed on. Aguero performed incredibly well against Huddersfield netting a hat trick and assisting once. Rotation, what rotation? With Pep finding a formation which fits Gabriel Jesus and Aguero in the squad the worries will be lessened about his place in the starting XI. Pep lavished praise upon the Argentine attacker after the 6-1 win.
“He came back perfect. After surgery with the doctor, he feels free now. He suffered last year with some problems but his whole game – not just scoring goals but his passing and his assists… he never stops!
“When that happens, he is one of the best strikers in the world, without a doubt.
“Since he came back, in this period – in the Community Shield, against Arsenal and today, he has been perfect.”
With Man City set to face newly promoted Wolves, you’d expect much the same. Despite the highly rated midlands side performing well they’ve still yet to win a game in the league. With Nuno Espirito Santo looking unlikely to change his team style and ethos. It could come undone against a side much more powerful than his own. Sergio has 65.42% probability of scoring and could net more than one if he remains in the form he’s been in thus far.
#4- Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – Arsenal – Expected Points 5.65
After failing to score in his opening two fixtures the Gabonese striker will be testing the patience of owners which have had him since game week 1. The real question I have to ask, is why did you have him in the first place? With two opening fixtures against Man City at home, and Chelsea away you’re bonkers if you think he’d perform better than the likes of Kane and Aguero. Game week 3 was always the fixture to consider the ex-Dortmund attacker. With Arsenal having what can only be considered as a dream run of fixtures you’d be insane to not have Aubameyang in your squad. Up next is West Ham away, followed by Cardiff, Newcastle, Everton, Watford, Fulham, Leicester and then Crystal Palace.
8 fixtures in which you can realistically seeing him getting points in at least 50% of them. Whilst Aubameyang failed to find the net in the opening game weeks, he did threaten. He missed a sitter against Chelsea and also scored an offside goal. Against a West Ham side which lost at home to Bournemouth, you’d expect Arsenal to pile the pressure early onto Manuel Pellegrini’s side.
With a massive 62% chance of scoring Aubameyang is one of the weeks most likely scorers.
#DIFFERENTIAL! – Marcos Alonso – Chelsea – Expected Points 5.13
While Marcos Alonso isn’t one of the most expected point scorers in gameweek 3, he is a differential pick. After increasing by 0.1m over the week, he may have escaped the clutches of many managers who were hoping to bring him in. With an implied probability of scoring over 20% and the 4th highest clean sheet probability at 43.48%. You might be hoping the wing back repeats his exploits from GW1/2. With double figures hauls in both games, those who risked bringing in the Spaniard (who could have been a rotation risk under Sarri) were rightfully rewarded. Those of us with a history in the game know that Alonso is a very very streaky player, and he’ll more than likely get 2 points.
One thing that has surprised me about Alonso’s play under Sarri is that many expected him to not be as attacking. That is not the case. Alonso has been bombing down the wing and been heavily involved in the attacks. Whether or not that is due to Hazard being out of the side, remains to be seen. With the Belgian back this week we’ll soon find out. While not a captain choice for me, and you’re far behind already, a differential pick may do you no harm. Or lots when you have players like Salah this week.
For alternate choices to our own find the table with all of the player’s expected points below. Trent Alexander Arnold is this week’s most likely point scorer from defence.