In a similar feature to last year, we’re sharing with you who is this week’s most likely point scorers based on an algorithm we’ve created. The points are based on a player’s chance of scoring once, twice, three times a lady…. No sorry, just once and twice. As well as that we add defensive player’s clean sheet points and whether they’re expected to start or not. The variables for starting are ‘Yes’, ‘No’, and ‘Rotation’. With Yes giving a player 2 points, No 0, and Rotation 1. In doing this we will give you who is The Bookie’s Captain for Gameweek 2.
A midfielder will naturally get more points for scoring, as will a defender, while a forward only gets 4 points. This can often lead to a midfielder with 50% chance of scoring (50% x 5 = 2.5) ending up with a higher expected point tally than a forward with 60% chance of scoring (4 x 60% = 2.4).
Having polled 156 people on the site, we’re about to upset you. This week’s number one captain selection isn’t who you had predicted.
#1 – Mohamed Salah – 6.76 points
Mohamed Salah narrowly edges out Sergio Aguero as this week’s captain selection thanks to the extra value for goals from midfield and the chance of a clean sheet. With a probability of 59.34% of scoring and a 42% chance of keeping a clean sheet, Salah is this week’s most likely point scorer. In game week one it took only 19 minutes for Salah to score and for all of us to relax. Despite the early goal Salah only scored 8 points and was overshadowed by his teammate Sadio Mane who scored twice. Salah could have scored another in the fixture but failed to. His movement though was incredible and it seems that last year’s form wasn’t a flash in the pan. Against Crystal Palace, he is likely to get chances but they’re likely to be more firm defensively than West Ham. Even if the Egyptian does score, I’d not expect bonus points. A worrying trend.
#2 – Sergio Aguero – 6.56 points
Sergio Aguero tops the list in the most likely scorers in game week 2 with a whopping 73.19% chance of scoring against Huddersfield. Despite this, he languishes second in our captaincy choice. With Huddersfield only a 4.59% chance of keeping a clean sheet, it looks more a matter of when they concede rather than if. Having failed to score in game week 1 despite having a one-on-one with Petr Cech there were doubts about his position in Pep’s squad. With rotation becoming the norm under Guardiola FPL manager’s worry as soon as a player goes without a goal. Suddenly his imperious form against Chelsea in the Charity Shield is forgotten. If Aguero fails to net against Huddersfield I can see a lot of managers swapping him out for Aubameyang given Arsenal’s good fixtures.
#3 – Riyad Mahrez – 6.3 points
Unsurprisingly another City player is in the top 5 captaincy picks for game week 2. With City facing an undaunting home fixture against Huddersfield, the Algerian winger could be crucial in disposing of them. After a summer break with no world cup and moving to City Mahrez will be gunning to nail down his spot in the starting XI. With the unfortunate news that KDB has suffered a knee injury, it opens the gate for the ex-Foxes winger. With Bernardo Silva most likely playing centrally in place of de Bruyne, Mahrez could nail down a spot on the wing.
#4 – Harry Kane – 6.21 points
Can Kane close the chapter on his August curse by scoring against Fulham at the weekend? The bookies seem to think so. With a whopping 68.12% chance of scoring the Englishman is massively in favour of scoring against the newly promoted London side. With that being said, there was something missing from Harry Kane’s opening fixture performance against Newcastle. Actually, there were many things. Kane struggled to control the ball, get involved and get into attacking positions. He looked incredibly tired and looked to lack fitness and/or a break. At 12.5m the most expensive forward in the game has yet to get out of first gear. With Kane being a notoriously slow starter and having yet to score in August we’d advise against having the world-class attacker in your side for now.
#5. John Stones – 5.66 points
A surprising pick for game week 2’s captaincy. Stones has seemingly nailed down a role in Pep’s starting XI alongside Aymeric Laporte. After a good world cup where he scored twice, he will be expecting to break his scoring duck in the league for Man City. At 5.66 points he edges it over fullbacks Kyle Walker and Ben Mendy at 5.43 respectively. We had planned on bringing Ben Mendy into our OddsOnFPL team. Unfortunately, due to a price rise, it has made it difficult to bring him in. With City’s good fixtures as well as an incredibly high probability of keeping a clean sheet in this fixture, you’d be mad to not have City coverage in your back line.
To find all of the other player’s expected points, point per million etc, see the table below.