In a similar feature to last year, we’re sharing with you who is this week’s most likely point scorers based on an algorithm we’ve created. The points are based on a player’s chance of scoring once, twice, three times a lady…. No sorry, just once and twice. As well as that we add defensive player’s clean sheet points and whether they’re expected to start or not. The variables for starting are ‘Yes’, ‘No’, and ‘Rotation’. With Yes giving a player 2 points, No 0, and Rotation 1. The points are taken from our Clean Sheet Gameweek 16 post which was shared earlier this week. Using this information we’ll help you choose your captain for Fantasy Football in game week 16.
A midfielder will naturally get more points for scoring, as will a defender, while a forward only gets 4 points. This can often lead to a midfielder with 50% chance of scoring (50% x 5 = 2.5) ending up with a higher expected point tally than a forward with 60% chance of scoring (4 x 60% = 2.4).
With a short break between gameweek 15 and 16 there could be a lot of rotation expected, especially at sides outside of the big 6. Ensure you have players on your bench who are likely to play, as key players could see limited minutes. Given we’ve already seen Klopp and Pep act the maggot, could we see the same from Emery, Sarri and Poch? It is possible, so buyers beware.
Without further ado, we will give you who is The Bookie’s Captain for Gameweek 16.
#1 – Mohamed Salah – Liverpool – Expected Points 6.05
Salah was surprisingly rotated for the fixture against Burnley midweek. With Klopp choosing to rest some of his star players in a fixture he expected his side to comfortably win. With an away fixture to a Bournemouth side which always struggle to Liverpool, Salah could be in with a chance of repeating his feat of scoring against Bournemouth away from home. With Liverpool winning 4-0 away last season to the Cherries Salah could easily get on scoresheet, and the bookies agree. The Egyptian has a 51.89% chance of scoring and a 36.19% chance of a clean sheet. Once again Salah tops the list. Will his rest midweek see him once again see limited minutes?
#2 – Anthony Martial – Man United – Expected Points 5.84
Listhony Listano gets an 7/10 for his performance against Arsenal midweek. (I bet nobody got that reference) The inside forward worked with scraps for the majority of the game against Arsenal prior to being subbed off with a knock. In spite of this he scored and amassed a total of 7 points, a decent return for the Frenchman. In gameweek 16 he faces a Fulham side which have looked better under Ranieri, but are still without a clean sheet in god knows how long. Martial has a 48,29% chance of scoring with just shy of a 50% chance of a clean sheet. I’m surprised he is this high up the list, but with a lot of the big guns playing away from home and and City and Chelsea facing off he is this week’s second best captaincy selection.
#3 – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – Arsenal – Expected Points 5.55
The Gabonese hitman has been in fantastic form for Arsenal since signing for Arsenal and has shown capable of starting up top as well as on the wing for Unai Emery’s side. Whether it is creating for Lacazette or being the focal point of the attack he is almost always central to Arsenal’s chance of scoring. Auba has a 60.4% chance of scoring at anytime and going by recent form he most likely will. An interesting tidbit about Aubameyang from gameweek 15, was that he attained more price rises than points. He’ll likely do the opposite in game week 16.
#DIFFERENTIAL! – Callum Paterson – Cardiff – Expected Points 4.08
Big Callum Paterson has performed admirably as a makeshift centre forward for Cardiff this season. With the Bluebirds linked with a move for a proven striker in January, Paterson has proven a capable deputy in the meantime. With a fixture against Southampton this game week he could be expected to exploit a pourous defence and perhaps score, he has a 28.61% chance of scoring and a 33% chance of a clean sheet. A massive differential, for a massive reason. When searching through images for the weekly picture, we normally filter by large images, when searching for Callum Paterson, they’re always large images.