In a similar feature to last year, we’re sharing with you who is this week’s most likely point scorers based on an algorithm we’ve created. The points are based on a player’s chance of scoring once, twice, three times a lady…. No sorry, just once and twice. As well as that we add defensive player’s clean sheet points and whether they’re expected to start or not. The variables for starting are ‘Yes’, ‘No’, and ‘Rotation’. With Yes giving a player 2 points, No 0, and Rotation 1. The points are taken from our Clean Sheet Gameweek 14 post and our Goalscorer Probabilities Gameweek 14 post, both of which were shared earlier this week. Using this information we’ll help you choose your captain for Fantasy Football in game week 14.
A midfielder will naturally get more points for scoring, as will a defender, while a forward only gets 4 points. This can often lead to a midfielder with 50% chance of scoring (50% x 5 = 2.5) ending up with a higher expected point tally than a forward with 60% chance of scoring (4 x 60% = 2.4).
Without further ado, we will give you who is The Bookie’s Captain for Gameweek 14.
#1 – Eden Hazard – Chelsea – Expected Points 7.05
The Chelsea star has seemingly been carrying a knock all season, with Europaligitus catching him many times. The Belgian started the season on fire, but has failed to find the net in his last 9 fixtures, a surprising statistic considering his ownership. Given his recent bad run of form it was of no surprise that many have made the move to Raheem Sterling who has scored 45 points in the last 5 gameweeks. Hazard though must be considered as this week’s most likely captain given Chelsea play Fulham at home. With Hazard’s last goal coming against Southampton at the start of October he will be looking to build some form again against a Fulham side who have conceded the most goals in the league this season. With clean sheet points likely and a goal also likely he is a great option for captaincy, and the bookie’s most likely captaincy pick.
#2 – Raheem Sterling – Man City – Expected Points 6.58
Sterling has over a 50% chance of scoring and keeping a clean sheet, and is quickly becoming one of the games best differential picks. One of this week’s most popular transfers has been Hazard out for Sterling and I can see the thinking behind that. The Englishman is one of the Premier League’s best players, he is playing in an attacking setup and is almost nailed on. With fixture congestion and having played 90 minutes during the week against Lyon, rotation could rear its ugly head given he would have started 3 games in 10 days and the midweek fixture too. Just beware that you could be burnt by Pep if you do captain him.
#3 – Mohamed Salah – Liverpool – Expected Points 6.55
Mo pips Aguero to a top three stop this week mainly due to his clean sheet points. Surprisingly this week’s most likely goalscorer doesn’t make the grade. Salah has been steadily picking up points this season and plays in a Merseyside derby which has normally been an easy 3 points for Liverpool over the years. The Egyptian has over a 50% chance of scoring and comes up against an Everton side which have started to gel defensively. I think Liverpool will struggle to steam roll Everton like they normally do, but wouldn’t be surprised to see Salah with his almost expected 7 or 8 points without bonus points.
#DIFFERENTIAL! – Wilfried Zaha – Crystal Palace – Expected Points 4.13
I may be a little bias here as I’ve transferred him into my personal team, but I think Wilf is going to have a cracker of a game against Burnley at home. Palace haven’t been all too good this season but when Wilf plays against weaker opposition he normally performs well. Last season only 1 of his 9 goals came against the big 6, whilst this season all 3 of his goals have come against weaker opposition also. The Ivorian has only played 11 out of the 13 games so far and has struggled with teams kicking him off the park. Given Palace’s run of fixtures I expect the combo of Wilfried and Mili to amass countless points from penalties. I bet my nan’s fake teeth he’ll score more than his expected tally this week.