In a similar feature to last year, we’re sharing with you who is this week’s most likely point scorers based on an algorithm we’ve created. The points are based on a player’s chance of scoring once, twice, three times a lady…. No sorry, just once and twice. As well as that we add defensive player’s clean sheet points and whether they’re expected to start or not. The variables for starting are ‘Yes’, ‘No’, and ‘Rotation’. With Yes giving a player 2 points, No 0, and Rotation 1. The points are taken from our Clean Sheet Gameweek 13 post and our Goalscorer Probabilities Gameweek 13 post, both of which were shared earlier this week. Using this information we’ll help you choose your captain for Fantasy Football in game week 13.
A midfielder will naturally get more points for scoring, as will a defender, while a forward only gets 4 points. This can often lead to a midfielder with 50% chance of scoring (50% x 5 = 2.5) ending up with a higher expected point tally than a forward with 60% chance of scoring (4 x 60% = 2.4).
After a long International break, with a few players being ruled out due to injury there are a lot of teams which would have been hoping for more time to recover.
Without further ado, we will give you who is The Bookie’s Captain for Gameweek 13.
#1 – Mohamed Salah – Liverpool – Expected Points 6.29
Liverpool play against Watford away in a fixture which provided 11 goals over 2 fixtures last season. Salah scored 5 goals in those fixtures, with 4 of them coming at home. Do I need to say more apart from the fact that Salah scored 5 goals last season against Watford? The Egyptian has a 55% chance of scoring, and a decent chance of picking up a clean sheet point too. Salah is the only player this week which is expected to score over 6 points, with a total amount of 6.29 points. Given last seasons heroics and his
#2/3 – Sergio Aguero/Raheem Sterling – Man City – Expected Points 5.76/5.75
City play away to West Ham in a fixture they’re expected to win comfortably. The Citizens have an 80% chance of winning according to the bookies and that could even be considered value. In City’s last 3 away fixtures against West Ham the Hammers have conceded 13 goals, that is an average of 4.33 goals a game, why do I not have City assets? Both Aguero and Sterling are crucial in City’s attack and very well could be involved in goals away from home, but how do you choose who to pick?
With only 0.01 points separating the two the difference is so nominal you may as well flip a coin as to who to select as your captain if you don’t own Salah. If I had to choose one from the two I’d go with Sterling, based purely on the fact he is more likely to play the 90 minutes and he is more likely to assist.
#DIFFERENTIAL! – Richarlison – Everton – Expected Points 5.67
Brazil’s Richarlison has been in fine form for Everton this season and for Brazil too. The ex Watford man netted in a 1-0 win against Cameroon showing that he is capable of doing it on a larger stage than Merseyside. While he is our differential pick, he is also this week’s 4th most likely points grabber with a 46.5% chance of scoring and a 50% chance of a clean sheet to boot. Having been deemed a doubt early on, playing for Brazil has allayed fears that he would be ruled out of this weeks fixture. With 6 goals in 10 fixtures, he could be in with a shot of being this season’s top goalscorer after being converted to a striker. It is early days, but he looks the real deal up top.