In a similar feature to last year, we’re sharing with you who is this week’s most likely point scorers based on an algorithm we’ve created. The points are based on a player’s chance of scoring once, twice, three times a lady…. No sorry, just once and twice. As well as that we add defensive player’s clean sheet points and whether they’re expected to start or not. The variables for starting are ‘Yes’, ‘No’, and ‘Rotation’. With Yes giving a player 2 points, No 0, and Rotation 1. The points are taken from our Clean Sheet Gameweek 12 post and our Goalscorer Probabilities Gameweek 12 post, both of which were shared earlier this week. Using this information we’ll help you choose your captain for Fantasy Football in game week 12.
A midfielder will naturally get more points for scoring, as will a defender, while a forward only gets 4 points. This can often lead to a midfielder with 50% chance of scoring (50% x 5 = 2.5) ending up with a higher expected point tally than a forward with 60% chance of scoring (4 x 60% = 2.4).
Without further ado, we will give you who is The Bookie’s Captain for Gameweek 12.
#1 – Mohamed Salah – Liverpool – Expected Points 8.03
A rare sight midweek for Salah and Co as they failed to score in the Champions League match. Thankfully, they face a Fulham side who is literally conceding every week and I mean that literally. Fulham haven’t kept a clean sheet all season. Salah will no doubt be challenging for the golden boot come the end of the season and he’ll have endless chances this week to add to his tally. It’s absolutely no surprise Salah has the highest expected points given Fulham have just a 4.47% chance of a clean sheet. I was shocked when I saw Salah’s expectancy was greater than the amount of 8.03 against Cardiff as that was an enormous amount. Given Fulham’s ineptitude for defensive stability, it is expected Liverpool will run riot in GW12. Salah has a 73.26% chance of scoring, and over 40% likely to score 2 or more. With a 57% chance of a clean sheet to boot, if you don’t have Salah in GW12, you’re in for a worrying week.
#2 – Sadio Mane – Liverpool – Expected Points 7.11
If you don’t have Salah, well there’s always Mane. Mane has been off the boil lately for those that opted to get him in after seeing such good returns early in the season. He has only returned attacking returns once since GW5. A brace against Cardiff in GW10. You know what that tells me? He’ll likely punish the lower tier teams. Up steps Fulham. Given Manchester City play in a derby where anything can happen it potentially rules out captaincy choices for many FPL managers. Those of you that can’t afford Salah and don’t want to risk Hazard potentially not playing a full 90. Mane is the perfect option.
#3 – Eden Hazard – Chelsea – Expected Points 6.26
After being potentially ruled out of this week’s fixture, players will be happy in the knowledge he played in Chelsea’s midweek tie to Bate. The Belgian winger has been in phenomenal form as of late and is one of this weeks most likely point scorers. Chelsea are at home to an Everton side which has struggled to keep clean sheets this season. Everton have only kept 2 clean sheets this season in 11 games, and have failed to do so away from home this season. Hazard has a 53.48% chance of scoring and a 47% chance of a clean sheet. He may not finish the match but he could do Everton damage even with limited
#DIFFERENTIAL! – Felipe Anderson – West Ham – Expected Points 3.87
Huddersfield may have ended their dry spell in beating Fulham in game week 11 but they’re still my favourite to go down. Felipe Anderson has finally started to hit form, and given Arnautovic’s finishing ability Anderson has a focal point for his playmaking ability. With only 3.87 expected points, I’d almost bet my parent’s house on the likelihood of him scoring more than his expected tally. The Brazilian has a 24.74% of scoring and a 39.72% of a clean sheet. With low ownership, he could be a good differential pick this week.