Odds On FPL – Gameweek 4 Preview

Having noticed that this week’s most exciting player is 0.90 points more than any other player, we HAD to bring in Alexis Sanchez this week. The Chilean is expected to score 4.33 points and is a massive differential only at 2.5%. We replaced Willian this week due to him being expected to be dropped for Hazard, he was expected to get 2.14 points. Alexis Sanchez was the easy option to replace him with, but in doing so we had to drop a striker to create space for him. With our options being under 6.6m, the player with the most expected points was Tammy Abraham with 2.04 points expected.

Tammy Abraham replaces Sergio Aguero, with the point difference between the two being 0.82 points, meaning our two free transfers this week have amassed us an extra 1.37 expected points. It was a choice between swapping out Aguero or Lukaku, and with Lukaku more likely to play 90 minutes in every game, and being the 3rd most likely scorer this week, the Belgian pipped Aguero to the first choice striker spot.

Wayne Hennessey – 4.5m  – 1.41 expected points

Maya Yoshida – 5.0m – 2.56 expected points

Eric Bailly – 6.1m – 2.41 expected points

Marcos Alonso – 7.1m – 2.99 expected points

Dele Alli – 9.5m – 2.54 expected points

Henrikh Mkhitaryan – 8.3m – 2.62 expected points

Ruben Loftus-Cheek – 4.5m – 1.44 expected points

Alexis Sanchez (C) – 11.9m – 4.33 expected points

Manolo Gabbiadini – 7.0m – 2.39 expected points

Romelu Lukaku – 11.7m – 3.06 expected points

Tammy Abraham – 11.5m – 2.04 expected points


Jason Lokilo – 4.4m – 1.76 expected points

Kevin Long – 4.0m – 2.05 expected points

Rob Elliot – 4.0m – 1.25 expected points

Vincent Kompany – 6.0m – INJURED

Transfers In:

Tammy Abraham – 5.5m – 2.04 expected points

Alexis Sanchez – 11.9m – 4.33 expected points

Transfers Out:

Willian7.1m (7.0m selling fee) – 2.14 expected points

Sergio Aguero – 11.5m – 2.86 expected points

In conclusion:

Some rotation risks were removed and replaced with more likely starters. In doing so, we managed to increase the expected points of the side. Kompany is out injured, but I’m seeing some issues currently with the prediction odds, as we will need to include whether or not a player is likely to start or not. Loftus Cheek starts ahead of Lokilo, despite having less expected points, due to the fact he will start, unlike Lokilo.

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