Introducing xReturns

For GW1, I had a conundrum: I knew I wanted Benjamin Mendy on my team long-term, but I noticed that many elite managers were benching him because of his tough matchup against Arsenal.

To decide whether he was still worth starting, I developed xReturns: This looks at xG+xA+xCS. For xCS for GW1, I took our probability odds of clean sheets. For xG+xA, I looked at last season’s xG+xA per 90 minutes, from understat.com. I combine those numbers to find the likelihood that a Defender will get a return on a given week (either an assist, goal, or CS)

Here’s the ranking

PriceDEFxG and xA (90)xCS (90)xG xA and xCS$ per x
6Robertson0.250.520.777.79
5Alexander-Arnold0.200.520.726.94
6.5Alonso0.230.480.719.15
6Van Dijk0.170.520.698.70
5.5Bailly0.110.540.658.46
6.5Azpilicueta0.160.480.6410.16
5Shaw0.080.540.628.06
6.5Valencia0.070.540.6110.66
6Trippier0.220.380.6010.00
4.5Cedric0.130.470.607.50
6Aurier0.210.380.5910.17
5.5Luiz0.090.480.579.65
6Davies0.180.380.5610.71
6Mendy0.270.280.5510.91
4Bednarak0.060.470.537.55
5.5Patrick Van Aanholt0.240.270.5110.78
5.5Baines0.210.300.5110.78
5Ake0.110.400.519.80
5.5Seamus Coleman0.190.300.4911.22
4.5Steve Cook0.080.400.489.38
4.5Adam Smith0.080.400.489.38
6.5Walker0.180.280.4614.13
6Vertonghen0.050.380.4313.95
6.5Otamendi0.130.280.4115.85
5Sakho0.140.270.4112.20
5.5Bellerin0.210.180.3914.10
4.5Holebas0.170.230.3811.25
4.5Tomkins0.100.270.3712.16
5.5Stones0.090.280.3714.86
5Ward0.070.240.3116.13
5Mee0.070.240.3116.13
5.5Laporte0.020.280.3018.33
4Wan-Bissoko0.030.270.3013.33
4.5Schindler0.090.180.2716.67
4.5Zanka0.080.230.2714.52

As you see, Liverpool and ManU defenders dominated the top. However, despite his tough matchup, Mendy’s high xG+xA showed that he was still likely to produce a return. So I combined him with Robertson (highest xReturns), and now I’m in the top 100k to start the season.

You’ll also notice that xReturns also highlighted Patrick Van Aanholt, Southampton defenders, Chelsea defenders all as DEF likely to produce returns.

Each week I’ll be publishing the xReturns for defenders. Look for an article later this week for GW2’s xReturns!

[Total: 4    Average: 4.5/5]

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