Goalscorer Probabilities and Expected Points – Gameweek 14 #FPL

With game week 14 coming quicker than a virgin for their first time, we’ve had to combine the anytime post and the expected points post into one post. Some would call it a super post, but we don’t want to stroke our egos. We’ll just call it a ‘we barely have time for the 2 posts, let alone the 4‘ post.

The post uses bookie’s odds to predict player’s likelihood to score, keep a clean sheet and we translate those probabilities into points. With Arsenal and Chelsea having relatively easy fixtures expect some of their players to be near the top of the most likely scorers and point scorers this week.

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Forwards

With Chelsea at home to a Swansea side that are on a downward slope. Its hard to not see Alvaro Morata getting amongst the scorers. Morata is already being compared to the likes of Drogba at a very early stage in his Chelsea career. A goal or two here would be nice to add some support to those claims.

Arsenal faces a home game vs Huddersfield on Wednesday and following the last gasp winner vs Burnley on Sunday, a more decisive performance will be expected here by the Arsenal fans. I’d like to think that Lacazette will be out to make an impression here as he has been subbed off in games in recent weeks.

Harry Kane was the captains choice for a bulk on fantasy teams at the weekend. However, he did not make it a stress-free 90 minutes for managers. He left it rather late to get a goal and he barely justified the captain’s armband. With Spurs away to Leicester it looks like another game where our trust will be in Harry Kane’s hands (or Feet).

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Midfielders

Since I’ve mentioned Mohamad Salah a few gameweeks ago, the man is playing like a man posessed. While Liverpool may not always get a result, he’s proving good value to pop up with a goal or 2. I’d be hoping Salah can continue this fine form on a cold Wednesday night in Stoke.

Alexis Sanchez clinched the points for Arsenal at the weekend thanks to a late penalty vs Burnley. He has been playing well in recent weeks and I think that goal could be the start of a good run for the Chilean midfielder.

Eden Hazard has a total of 3 goals and 2 assists since his good run begun in gameweek 9. Similar to Morata he should get plenty action at home to Swansea and this is the type of fixture he usually excels in.

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Defenders

Kolasinac for Arsenal looks a good prospect to have in your team this gameweek. Following a clean sheet at the weekend, he will be hoping to keep the form going as Arsenal welcome Huddersfield to the Emirates.

Otamendi looks the safest option of the Man City defensive line to have in your time at the moment. Man City are playing in a manner that no team can compete with at the moment and are looking like title winners already even before we have reached December.

A Chelsea defender looks key this week and it was a toss up with Alonso and Azpilicueta. I’m going to decide with Azpilicueta (Dave) as I think Alonso may be rotated following some poor performances of late. Alberto Moreno of all people made him look average at the weekend lol.

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Goalkeepers

Ederson is expected to bounce back from conceding against Huddersfield with a clean sheet against Southampton midweek. The Brazilian stopper stood no chance when Otamendi headed into his own net from a corner. Funnily enough, Ederson admitted to Sky Sports that he only became a goalkeeper due to his laziness as a child.

 “When I started playing football, I played in defence as a left-back, but given that I was too lazy to run after the opposition’s attacking players I asked the coach to put me in goal and that’s how my passion for the position was born.”

The ex-Benfica man will hone his unique style of laziness against Southampton and is expected to amass 4.18 points.

Asmir Begovic was touted as one of the shrewdest signings of the summer by Eddie Howe after signing from champions Chelsea. After what poor start for the Cherries the Bosnian has picked up 3 clean sheets in his last 3 fixtures against Newcastle, Huddersfield, and Swansea. With Burnley at home next up for Bournemouth, Begovic could pick up his 4th consecutive clean sheet after only keeping one in his opening 9. Asmir is expected to gain 3.66 points, the same amount as Manchester United’s David de Gea, but for a fraction of the price.

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