Goalscorer Probabilities and Expected Points – Gameweek 38

This has been a long year. I’m sad in some ways and ecstatic in some others. With many of our money leagues wrapping up I’m coming up trumps in pretty much all of the leagues I’m in except for the OddsOnFPL league, you bastards. Historically this game week has always thrown up a serious amount of goals, and defences become pretty much obsolete, with teams going gung-ho with little to play for. This season, not much is different. With Chelsea needing a massive goal swing for Champions League football, and Swansea needing as much to stay up, there is little to play for except for personal accolades.

As an aside, thank you all for your continued reading. Almost 50,000 unique readers have read the blog this year, it has been tough at times with work, and life sometimes taking priority, but I hope we have helped improve your ranking from sharing this information with you.


Harry Kane has looked unfit of late but has still scored 3 goals in his last 4 fixtures. He scored 3 goals in last year’s final fixture against Hull to guarantee the golden boot, could he do the same this season against a Leicester side who recently conceded 5 against Crystal Palace? Potentially. The bookies have Kane at a massive 70.29% chance of scoring at any time, with most bookies even having him as a 14% to score a hat trick. If anyone could, Kane could.

Pierre Emerick Aubameyang has proven already in half a season that he can do it in the Premier League. The former Dortmund attacker has adapted to the Premier League in no time scoring 9 goals in 11 starts. Phenomenal numbers. With Arsenal playing Huddersfield in Arsene’s last match can expect a strong performance from the Gunners. You should perhaps worry about their alarming away form in 2018 though. Arsenal have lost all 7 of their away Premier League fixtures, including losses to fellow promoted sides Brighton and Newcastle, could Huddersfield make it 3/3? The Gabonese attacker has a 55.70% chance of scoring in GW38.


Mohamed Salah has all but wrapped up the golden boot, and is looking to score more than Shearer and the rest who had 34, so he will be looking for goals, and comes up against a Brighton side who have likely been boozing since confirming their status as a Premier League side. The Egyptian is expected to score 8.02 points and is slightly higher to score at any time than Harry Kane with a probability of 71.68%.

Marko Arnautovic has played out of position pretty much all season long as an attacker, and it has proven to be one of David Moyes’ greatest decisions over the last few years. The Austrian attacker has proven to be a workhorse and a unique attacker, offering strong pressing, unlike Chicharito and Andy Carroll offer. With many Stoke fans previously laughing at West Ham paying £20 million for what they considered as a luxury player, who is having the last laugh now? Alongside Pascal Gross and Mohamed Salah, Arnie has been one of the signings of the season. Marko has a 41.53% chance of scoring against Everton in West Ham’s final game of the season.


Trent Alexander Arnold has been playing in midfield a little as of late. In Liverpool’s youth teams his has always played there, and technically he seems to be a better fit more centrally in the side. The young Liverpool player could be in with a shout of going to the world cup in place of Trippier or Nathaniel Clyne, and after some of his performances this season, it wouldn’t be unwarranted. Also, he wouldn’t have to come up against Marcus Rashford in international fixtures.

Patrick Van Aanholt has somewhat flown under the radar this season. The Dutch international has scored 4 goals this season, with 2 goals in his last 2 fixtures, including the goal which sent Stoke down to the Championship. The full back often is left with bucket loads of space due to the movement of Wilfried Zaha which leaves a so many defenders out of position and chasing the fast feet of the Ivorian international. England certainly missed a trick not playing Zaha in a competitive fixture.

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