Goalscorer Probabilities and Expected Points – Gameweek 31

The blank game week has been a long time coming, and nothing quite prepares someone for the fixtures this game week offers. Only 4 players have a point expectancy of 5 or more and you’d be right in guessing that they would be Liverpool players. Of our top 8 players, 8 of them are Liverpool players, while Bournemouth defenders creep ahead of Stoke’s Chuopo Moting and Bournemouth attackers Callum Wilson and Junior Stanislas.

This week’s most likely point scorer is Mohamed Salah with 7.26 points, followed closely by Sadio Mane and Virgil van Dijk. You would be mad to consider anyone other than the Egyptian a viable option. At OddsOnFPL we understand that you may want a differential, but with 6 game weeks after this one, you’d be best off going with the player who is 1.54 points better off than the second most likely.

While people are looking for a striker to replace Kane, Roberto Firmino is the best option at 4.96 points, while Callum Wilson is the only attacker outside of Liverpool with a point expectancy above 4.00, with recent riser Steve Mounie only at 3.75 points. For 0.25 points worth of a -4, it might be worth taking a punt on Mounie, or Benteke (3.51).

As for people who are considering bringing in a GW31 keeper, the two best options are Karius and Asmir Begovic, though I believe Jack Butland could score more than his expected 3.42 points.

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