Goalscorer Probabilities and Expected Points – Gameweek 15 #FPL

Game week 14 was something, wasn’t it? Both strikers started for Pep Guardiola, Mohamed Salah was benched and scored two, Eden Hazard started on the bench, as did Cesar Azpilicueta and Romelu Lukaku failed to score again. It’s a tricky ol’ game.

With such a short time frame in between games, the posts will be coming thick and fast, as will the games. To make sure you don’t forget about deadlines, don’t miss deadlines and the posts make sure you sign up for our newsletter.

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Alvaro Morata disappointed in game week 14 only amassing 1 point due to a late yellow card. With so many captaining him, and some even triple captaining him you could be guaranteed to rise up the rankings were you to ignore his fixtures, his form, and everything else. Some smart decisions don’t pay off. With Chelsea’s fixtures being so easy you can fully expect him to capitalise on playing against weaker opposition and get closer to the top of the top scorer list. Morata is definitely one to consider as a captain this week with an expected point total of 5.71.

Jamie Vardy has been in good form this season, perhaps going slightly under the radar given the form of some of Salah, Sterling and Kane. The pacey striker has scored 1 in 2 this season, with his most recent goal coming in Leicester’s home win against Spurs. Quite the upset. Vardy’s form has been excellent since his missus has gone to the jungle, some of our readers may understand why…

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Mohamed Salah has more than proved the doubters wrong this season instantly showing he is Liverpool’s main man. Something which will make the Liverpool owners insanely happy, and perhaps even lead them to think that they can more easily sell Philippe Coutinho without impacting the team. While Salah has carried Liverpool with his 12 goals this season, it is unknown how much Sadio Mane‘s return to full fitness will impact his role in the team. Going by his cameo against Stoke this week, it really shouldn’t matter. The Egyptian is expected to score 5.78 points and is very, very quickly becoming a premium midfielder after starting the game as only a 9.0 asset.

Eric Maxim ChoupoMoting was pushed out to the wing midweek due to Crouch starting up top for Stoke. The ex-Schalke winger has been a great free signing for Stoke as his versatility and goals have been well needed in the absence of Saido Berahino, and Saido Berahino‘s form. The Cameroonian is expected to score 4.76 points this week and could be a differential captain choice.

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Kurt Zouma may be off Paul Pogba’s Christmas card list but with Stoke coming up against an impotent Swansea side he should be on some of your watch lists for game week 15. With Stoke being one of the most likely sides to keep a clean sheet and Zouma having a massive head which can get on the end of crosses he could be a smart buy for the coming game week. He is expected to score 4.4 points. Let’s hope he wasn’t too injured during the week. (see video below)


Zouma’s ex Chelsea team-mate Gary Cahill is also one of the most likely point scorers this week. There is something inherently about a defender trying to shoot. There is something even funnier when it is Gary Cahill trying to do a Rabona against Liverpool. With all that being said, Cahill has scored some insane goals in his career. He scored 6 goals in the Premier League last season. A tally which he has yet to get close to in his 10 Premier League appearances thus far. Could a leaky Newcastle side be the side which grants him his first of the season? He is expected to score 5.36 points, and if he scores it could be way higher.

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Before game week 14 Jordan Pickford had kept 1 clean sheet in his opening 13 fixtures. Last week’s 4-0 win felt like a turning point for Everton. With Sam Allardyce coming in too Everton could be expected to keep more clean sheets than before. At a cheapish price for a starting keeper of a decent side, Pickford could be a good keeper for the forthcoming fixtures.

Thibaut Courtois has been in good form as of late, and when you take into account his fixtures and you can expect that run to continue. The Belgian stopper comes up against Newcastle, West Ham, Huddersfield and Southampton in his next 4. He has kept a clean sheet in 4 of his last 5 games too! A fantastic premium stopper while only costing 5.4m. If you want a nailed on Chelsea defender.

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