Gameweek 4: Odds On Team – In Review

The bookies got it all wrong this week, with a large number of upsets, and some absolute smashes from sides. Liverpool went from smashing Arsenal 4-0, to losing 5-0 to Man City, with City managing to keep a clean sheet in what was expected to be a close affair. Not only that, but United drew, while conceding twice, despite being the side most likely to keep a clean sheet this week. Watford managed to keep a clean sheet away from home whilst only having a predicted clean sheet probability of 19.26%. Overall the bookies got it wrong this week, and in turn caused our team to also lose out.

A grand total of 22 points. What a stinker.


Wayne Hennessey – 2 points.

A change to 4-4-2 didn’t help Palace get a clean sheet. The Welsh stopper was left in no man’s land after an awful pass into space between the high line defense and the goalkeeper to Burnley’s Chris Wood. A worse start couldn’t have been asked for, but the game ended 1-0. Palace dominated the game after the goal, and Hennessey wasn’t really challenged. Stopped a decent chance against Ashley Barnes.

Status: Keep (unless WC)

Maya Yoshida – 0 points

Yoshida had international duty for Japan and only arrived back from international duty on Thursday, this could be why he was dropped, but it could be a sign of things to come for the centre-back. With Southampton’s fixtures getting worse pretty soon, it might be smart to drop Yoshida for a more nailed on starter, perhaps in a Spurs side.

Status: Precarious

Vincent Kompany – 0 points (injured)

Injury kept the Belgian out of the side. An all too recurring theme of Kompany’s career of late.  Kompany is expected to be back next week, but he very well could pick up another injury going to the fridge, or looking at John Stones.

Status: Keep (unless injury flares up)

Eric Bailly – 1 point

Awful. Dreadful defending for the Ivorian kept the right winger onside for the assist, and poor tracking of his man allowed Chuopo Moting to score the opener. Stoke looked a serious threat all game, and against better opposition I think United will struggle more than they have so far this season. 

Status: Keep

Marcos Alonso

Didn’t keep a clean sheet, score or assist and left us with 2 points. Alonso still found himself in attacking positions but won’t be the focal point of the attack on the left hand side with Hazard back. Still a good option for having essentially a midfielder which can get 4 points for a clean sheet.

Status: Keep

Alexis Sanchez (C) – 2 points

So apparently Alexis Sanchez is fat, and that’s why he didn’t start for Arsenal. I don’t know what is more laughable, the assertions that Sanchez is fat, or our decision to captain him. Started on the bench. Subbed on with 15, and didn’t really do much when he came on, but Arsenal really had little left to do against a hapless Bournemouth. A bad captain choice and really summed up our week.

Status: Keep

Dele Alli – 3 points

Owners will be frustrated to see just the 3 points returned from Alli. In a game where Spurs dominated and could have ended 7 or 8  nil, Alli was right in the mix, missing some great chances in the game. In the toss up between Eriksen and Alli, it was Eriksen who was on top this week. With Alli banned in Europe he’ll be rested, so we’re expecting big things for him against Swansea.

Status: Keep

Ruben Loftus-Cheek – 0 points

RLC was announced as fit for the game prior to it, but didn’t even manage to make the squad in Frank de Boer’s final game with Crystal Palace. With Roy Hodgson touted to come in, the former England manager could favour experience in an inexperienced Crystal Palace side.

Status: Keep

Henrikh Mkhitaryan – 2 points

The Armenian should have had an assist for Lukaku but the Belgian didn’t finish first time and scored after the save. He looks capable of assisting every game, but has yet to threaten the keeper. Looks a little lightweight for the league, but has had goals in the Europa league last season, still settling and will only get better.

Status: Keep

Romelu Lukaku – 6 points

Lukaku was bought to score goals and that is what he has done. Despite the big Belgian missing from 6 yards out he still bagged for United. Unfortunately for us, he didn’t manage to score as many as Harry Kane.

Status: Keep

Tammy Abraham – 2 points

Failed to score and had a chance cleared off the line from Lascelles. Didn’t get too many opportunities and Swansea have lacked creativity without Sigurdsson. Tammy Abraham is still a quality option up top for a side which are going to be reliant on his goals. Bony still lacks minutes, and fitness and Tammy is likely to keep his position in the side for a time longer.

Status: Keep

Manolo Gabbiadini – 2 points

3 blanks from 4 games and Southampton’s good fixtures end soon. For 7.0m the money could be better spent elsewhere. An inanimate carbon rod would be as effective. A game against Crystal Palace will be Gabbiadini’s last chance to shine, otherwise he would be gone.

Status: Keep


Rob Elliot – 8 points

It seems to bookies keep on choosing the wrong keeper out of the two, with Elliot being the better choice, yet riding the bench. The Irish international made a number of saves but was beaten by Abraham to have his blunder saved by Lascelles. A solid choice, but isn’t likely to keep many clean sheets, even if he has done so far.

Status: Keep

Jason Lokilo – 0 points.

His early season chance is gone and he will be an u23 prospect more now than ever since de Boer’s job has come into consideration. A price drop to 4.4 makes the move more difficult. A must go.

Status: Get rid (if on WC)

Kevin Long

Doesn’t play. Tarkowski was awarded the man of the match, and Ben Mee is first name on the team sheet, for 4.0m we have got deadwood, and realistically you shouldn’t expect much more from a 4.0m defender.

Status: Keep

In conclusion:

Before this week we had 14 players who we felt would be Starters. Only 9 started. Some serious decisions will have to be made about playing the wildcard. Champions league and Europa league starts next week, so more injuries and rotation could take place in the league. One things for certain, we need more starters.

The model doesn’t take into account variables such as if a player is due to start and I believe we can incorporate this into odds predictions. With an early kick off this Friday, our decisions will have to be made quickly on whether or not to WC.

Looking at our side for next week, we still have 14 players which could play, and the wildcard could be left for future fixtures when more injuries take place. It will be a tough week ahead. Thanks for following.

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