In a similar feature to last year, we’re sharing with you who is this week’s most likely point scorers based on an algorithm we’ve created. The points are based on a player’s chance of scoring once, twice, three times a lady…. No sorry, just once and twice. As well as that we add defensive player’s clean sheet points and whether they’re expected to start or not. The variables for starting are ‘Yes’, ‘No’, and ‘Rotation’. With Yes giving a player 2 points, No 0, and Rotation 1. The points are taken from our Clean Sheet Gameweek 9 post and our Goalscorer Probabilities Gameweek 9 post, both of which were shared earlier this week. Using this information we’ll help you choose your captain for Fantasy Football in game week 9.
A midfielder will naturally get more points for scoring, as will a defender, while a forward only gets 4 points. This can often lead to a midfielder with 50% chance of scoring (50% x 5 = 2.5) ending up with a higher expected point tally than a forward with 60% chance of scoring (4 x 60% = 2.4).
For reference, last week’s best captaincy choice Harry Kane flopped massively only garnering 1 point and getting a yellow card, with tough fixtures after an away trip to West Ham its going to be hard to validate having him in your side for much longer. Even if he did play excellently against Spain during the international break. The second most likely captain Eden Hazard scored a whopping 14 points, being the highest scorer from midfield. Whilst 3rd choice Aubameyang hit 15 points, Our differential pick Gudmundsson scored 7 points. 3 selections correct out of 4 isn’t all too shoddy. Check that out by clicking this.
Three players sit at the top of this week’s expected points leaderboard with only 0.19 expected points being the difference between them. With the range being 6.45 to 6.64, you have 3 excellent captaincy options, with the most likely captain potentially surprising you.
Without further ado, we will give you who is The Bookie’s Captain for Gameweek 9.
#1 – Mohamed Salah – Liverpool – Expected Points 6.64
Mohamed Salah had quite the international break, in a matter of moments he went from scoring a corner to being potentially ruled out of game week 9. It is amazing to think that Salah has been considered to be out of form this season. With 3 goals and 2 assists already, he is the 7th best performing midfielder in the game, the issue has always been the price. Is he worth 12.8m? Not on current form. With Liverpool not having to face any of last season’s top 5 until game week 17 many expect Salah’s form to improve drastically. Many believe that form over fixtures is how you should consider a player, personally I’d disagree. Normally a player gains form from playing easier opposition, and with Huddersfield and Cardiff in Liverpool’s next two, Salah is sure to pick up form. Whether he is fit to play the full 90 is anyone’s guess.
#2 – Sergio Aguero – Manchester City – Expected Points 6.55
Sergio Aguero enjoyed some time off over the break with a trip to LA after not being called up to the Argentina squad. With a break allowing Aguero to recover from the pain he has felt over the last few game weeks. He should be expected to play the 90 against Burnley. Aguero has an excellent record against Burnley, scoring 6 times in their last 5 fixtures against the Clarets. Aguero has been nailed on this season and has scored 5 goals in 8 appearances. Whilst those figures do look impressive, he has only scored in 3 of those 8 games. With a hat-trick in game week 2 bringing his tally up. In spite of this, City are sure to score against a Burnley side which has conceded on average 20.1 shots per game in the Premier League. Given City’s aptitude for chance creation. Burnley’s ineptitude for stopping chances. It seems like the perfect storm for the City attack to flourish in. Aguero has a massive 73% chance of scoring in this game week, with no other starting striker even coming close.
#3 – Raheem Sterling – Manchester City – Expected Points 6.45
Raheem Sterling did something during the international break which he rarely does. Perform well for England. This form has meant that the England man has been the most bought City player during the international break. With 82,113 transfers in thus far. Whilst Sterling only has a 54% chance of scoring in comparison to Sergio’s 73%, Raz has a 64.70% chance of getting a clean sheet point. Sterling has been incredibly underutilised this season by FPL owners with many going for Salah instead. Sterling still only has a 6% ownership whilst being the second highest scoring midfielder in the game, behind Eden Hazard.
Some may worry about his blank against Liverpool and some difficult alternating fixtures. But Raheem Sterling is without a doubt one of the best players in the Premier League. With 4 goals and 2 assists in 7 games this season, Raheem is on course to match last season’s 18 goals scored and 17 assists. Given his ability to score, assist and keep a clean sheet, he will be my personal team’s captain this week. That being said I don’t own Salah or Aguero.
#DIFFERENTIAL! – Richarlison – Everton – Expected Points 4.79
Everton’s record signing Richarlison de Andrade has shown last season’s form wasn’t a flash in the pan. The Brazilian was called up to the Selacao and has impressed people since moving to Merseyside in a £40m deal. With Marco Silva’s fellow signing Bernard coming into the side of late Richarlison has been moved up front in place of the out of the form Cenk Tosun. Richarlison has a 36.81% chance of scoring and a decent chance of a clean sheet, Richy could be a massive differential captain choice in game week 9. With Crystal Palace sweating on the fitness of Wilfried Zaha, Everton will be hoping the Ivorian is ruled out of the fixture. Palace are notoriously worse off without their talisman, with the away side losing 2-0 at home to Southampton in their only game without him. With home form being so important last season for Palace, with 26 of their 44 points coming from home, you’d expect Everton to win this fixture. Richarlison will most likely be involved if they do.