In a similar feature to last year, we’re sharing with you who is this week’s most likely point scorers based on an algorithm we’ve created. The points are based on a player’s chance of scoring once, twice, three times a lady…. No sorry, just once and twice. As well as that we add defensive player’s clean sheet points and whether they’re expected to start or not. The variables for starting are ‘Yes’, ‘No’, and ‘Rotation’. With Yes giving a player 2 points, No 0, and Rotation 1. The points are taken from our Clean Sheet Probabilities post and our Goalscorer Probabilities post, both of which were shared earlier this week. Using this information we’ll help you choose your captain for Fantasy Football in gameweek 5.
A midfielder will naturally get more points for scoring, as will a defender, while a forward only gets 4 points. This can often lead to a midfielder with 50% chance of scoring (50% x 5 = 2.5) ending up with a higher expected point tally than a forward with 60% chance of scoring (4 x 60% = 2.4).
In gameweek 6 some consideration will be put into sides which have in the Champions League. Inter’s win at home to Spurs meant it was Pochettino’s first time losing 3 games in a row as a Spurs manager. With Harry Kane still not in form, and Son coming back into the side there is some doubt about their strongest XI. In spite of this, they should be favourites to beat Brighton away from home.
With none of the top 6 playing one another, there should be a number of clean sheets for favourites this week. In game week 6 there are some tasty fixtures. Man City are playing away to newcomers Cardiff. Liverpool at home to Southampton. you’d expect the most likely captaincy selections to come from those sides.
For reference, last week both of our top captaincy selections performed admirably. Check that out by clicking this.
Without further ado, we will give you who is The Bookie’s Captain for Gameweek 6.
#1 – Mohamed Salah – Liverpool – Expected Points 7.52
.Mohamed Salah cut a disgruntled figure as Roberto Firmino scored a late winner against PSG in their midweek Champions League tie. The Egyptian has been out of sorts as of late only scoring twice in 6 appearances for Liverpool. What is worrying is that he has failed to be involved in build up or finish his chances. Could he be deviating back to the norm? According to understat.com, Salah has underscored by 1.9 goals, with an xG of 3.9, while also underscoring on his xA by 0.99. Had he scored 2 more goals and assisted once more he’d have been more impressive than he has been, but its worrying signs for the most expensive midfielder in the game.
What is surprising is that he has held his value this long. Salah has been transferred in 274440 times, whilst being transferred out 644,864, throughout the season. In spite of losing 370,424 owners. He most certainly is getting the Dejan Lovren treatment from Fantasy Football HQ.
#2 – Raheem Sterling – Manchester City – Expected Points 6.3
Raz has been in stellar form this season scoring 3 goals in 4 appearances. The 23-year-old is looking for a new contract matching the top earners at the club to show his importance. There are rumours about a stand-off between the club. With contract talks between Raheem Sterling & Man City have reportedly reached an ‘impasse’ as the player wants to be paid a basic salary of £220,000 per week. He’s currently on £170,000. Raheem was subbed off after 75 minutes against Lyon midweek but was lively and created chances. If he is to start he’ll likely score highly against a Cardiff side which have come undone against better opposition in the league. With 6.3 expected points he is second, only to Salah in this game week. Again, we have him as a starter, but he could be rotated with the talent City have at their Arsenal.
#3 – Sergio Aguero – Manchester City – Expected Points 5.96
I was worried about Aguero’s fitness with him being dropped to the bench for City’s 2-1 loss to Lyon, but he was subbed on in the second half. He looked semi-sharp and almost equalized, but City failed to turn around the result. One detriment to this sort of result is that City will more likely play a full-strength XI late into the group stage. Which can only mean Aguero will play in their most important fixtures. Hello, rotation! In spite of this, the striker is this week’s most likely scorer with an implied probability of 65.6%. With a fixture against a Cardiff side which conceded 3 against Arsenal, and 4 against Chelsea, could they be set to concede 5 against City? Time will tell.
#4 – Eden Hazard – Chelsea – Expected Points 5.83
In game week 5 Hazard scored three times against Cardiff, he was once against instrumental to everything Chelsea created. Hazard has come back from the World Cup and has performed like he does every second season, fantastically. Maurizio Sarri believes that if Hazard keeps his current vein of form up he could score 40+ goals this season.
“We have spoken and I told him he can score 40 goals. He has to improve some things, but he can do it.”
“If you have seen Saturday’s match, then I think so.”
Chelsea have no Champions League football in the current season. Due to that Hazard is being rested due to “fatigue” against PAOK. The Belgian could be left to feature in the Premier League only until the latter stages of the Europa League. With just under 50% chance of scoring, over 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet and an assist always likely, Hazard is definitely up there as one of this week’s best captaincy selections. With many players swapping out Salah for Hazard last week its going to be hard to validate getting Salah back in this week. Those players will have already gotten profit on their transfer with two price rises this week. With 47 points over the last 5 game weeks, you’re going to be hard pressed to find someone in better form.
#DIFFERENTIAL! – Callum Wilson – Bournemouth – Expected Points 3.85
Burnley have conceded 103 shots in 5 games. That is slightly over 20 shots a game. In GW5 they were made an absolute mockery of against Premier League newcomers Wolves. In spite of only a 1-0 scoreline, Raul Jimenez and Leo Bonatini could have easily made it 4/5-0 on another day. Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson could capitalize on what has become a porous Burnley defence of late. Wilson already has 2 goals and 2 assists to his name in the Premier League. The pacey Englishman is on course for his first double tally season in the top division. Wilson has struggled with injuries since 2015. Those troubles though, look to finally be fully fit and capable of showing what he can do at this level.