In a similar feature to last year, we’re sharing with you who is this week’s most likely point scorers based on an algorithm we’ve created. The points are based on a player’s chance of scoring once, twice, three times a lady…. No sorry, just once and twice. As well as that we add defensive player’s clean sheet points and whether they’re expected to start or not. The variables for starting are ‘Yes’, ‘No’, and ‘Rotation’. With Yes giving a player 2 points, No 0, and Rotation 1. The points are taken from our Clean Sheet Probabilities post and our Goalscorer Probabilities post, both of which were shared earlier this week. Using this information we’ll help you choose your captain for Fantasy Football in gameweek 5.
A midfielder will naturally get more points for scoring, as will a defender, while a forward only gets 4 points. This can often lead to a midfielder with 50% chance of scoring (50% x 5 = 2.5) ending up with a higher expected point tally than a forward with 60% chance of scoring (4 x 60% = 2.4).
In game week 5 the list is very focused on two sides with Chelsea and Man City players being the obvious captaincy choices. For the first time, this season Mohamed Salah drops out of the top 2 picks for captaincy, with 4 players ahead of him. Wolves players feature highly in the list with Castro and Jota ranking highly. Given Everton’s depleted squad there are a number of West Ham players which will be underrated this game week. Its surprising to see Marko Arnautovic with only a 34.05% chance of scoring against Everton away from home.
In doing this we will give you who is The Bookie’s Captain for Gameweek 5.
#1 – Sergio Aguero – Manchester City – Expected Points 6.49
Kun has been in the form of his life as of late. With most recently having being congratulated by Premier League great, Alan Shearer.
‘He is the best foreign player to ever play in the Premier League – a great centre-forward with no weaknesses.”
Sergio is unlikely to ever beat Shearer’s record of 260 goals. The 10th highest ranked scorer should be expected to at least reach Robbie Fowler’s 6th place at 163 goals. With Aguero already on 146 goals overall, I’d argue he’d be likely to break that tally by the end of the season. The Argentinian has a 71.81% chance of scoring against a leaky Fulham side. Most recently he has stated that “I feel fantastic, I don’t feel any sort of discomfort.” Which has been rare for Aguero over the last number of years. Just imagine what he can do without injury.
#2 – Eden Hazard – Chelsea – Expected Points 6.37
With Neil Warnock stating that the Bluebirds are going to go to Chelsea and play ball, this can only mean one thing. They are not going to do this. I wholeheartedly feel that Warnock will have similar tactics to the Arsenal game. Wherein he will instruct his players to kick Eden Hazard, as they did against Aaron Ramsey. In spite of this, I feel Hazard is better at being kicked… yes I really did write that. Hazard has been getting kicked since joining the league, and given Warnock expects not to sit back Hazard could get more space than normal.
Read below what Warnock had to say about the fixture:
“If you shut shop at Stamford Bridge you’re going to get picked off and lose by two or three anyway,” said Warnock.
“So you may as well have a go, you just have to hope you don’t leave yourself wide open to a pasting.
“We are looking forward to the test and with Manchester City to follow it doesn’t get much tougher than that.”
Take his words with a pinch of salt.
#3 – Marcos Alonso – Chelsea – Expected Points 6.25
Marcos Alonso’s fine form Chelsea was rewarded by Luis Enrique calling him up for his first competitive fixture for Spain. What surprised many most was that Alonso was more inhibited in his play and sat deeper in the defensive line. Something we’re not used to seeing with him at Chelsea. This must mean that at Chelsea he is given the license to roam, rather than his gung-ho nature taking over. The Spanish attacker has consistently gotten points and has looked like the
attacker defender we remember from the 2016/17 season. Chelsea are expected to keep a clean sheet, and Alonso has a 25% chance of scoring. Which makes him expected to score over 6 points this gameweek.
#DIFFERENTIAL! – Diogo Jota – Wolves – Expected Points 4.58
Many expected Diogo Jota to set the league alight given his form in the Championship last season. But as many before him have found, the jump in quality is massive between the top tier and the second in English football. Jota follows so far in the footsteps of Tom Ince and Anthony Knockaert. As players who tore up the championship but have failed to do so in Premier League. With Raul Jimenez an early doubt for the game week Jota could be asked to play in a more advanced role. Against Burnley which have been conceding bucket loads as of late. With only West Ham and Huddersfield conceding more goals so far this season. Jota has a 32.41% chance of scoring according to the bookies. He could be a worthwhile punt in gameweek 5 if you’re looking for a differential captain.