In a similar feature to last year, we’re sharing with you who is this week’s most likely point scorers based on an algorithm we’ve created. The points are based on a player’s chance of scoring once, twice, three times a lady…. No sorry, just once and twice. As well as that we add defensive player’s clean sheet points and whether they’re expected to start or not. The variables for starting are ‘Yes’, ‘No’, and ‘Rotation’. With Yes giving a player 2 points, No 0, and Rotation 1. The points are taken from our Clean Sheet Probabilities post and our Goalscorer Probabilities post, both of which were shared earlier this week. Using this information we’ll help you choose your captain for Fantasy Football in gameweek 4.
A midfielder will naturally get more points for scoring, as will a defender, while a forward only gets 4 points. This can often lead to a midfielder with 50% chance of scoring (50% x 5 = 2.5) ending up with a higher expected point tally than a forward with 60% chance of scoring (4 x 60% = 2.4).
In doing this we will give you who is The Bookie’s Captain for Gameweek 4.
#1 – Mohamed Salah – Liverpool – Expected Points 6.63
There are three things certain in life; Death, taxes and Salah getting no bonus points. Despite playing away from home Salah is still one of the most likely point scorers in game week 4. With him being odds-on to score the bookies think he’ll net against a Leicester side which conceded 2 against Man United. A mean feat going by recent results. There are issues off the field currently for Salah with his agent causing a ruckus in the Egyptian FA demanding special protection for the forward. Its unsure whether or not the events which are happening outside of football will impact him as a player. Time will tell. With Liverpool being a 44.40% chance of keeping a clean sheet, he also could get clean sheet points.
#2 – Sergio Aguero – Manchester City – Expected Points 6.55
Aguero could have scored a couple of goals against Wolves, even hitting the woodwork from a free kick late on. Against a Newcastle side which defended well against Chelsea, he could face a tough task in breaking enemy lines. With Newcastle playing park the bus at home, you may guess the tactic will be the same away from home. Especially against a stronger side. With the talent at City’s disposal, I would guess it will be easier for City to break down the defence than it was for Chelsea. With Aguero finally playing without pain for the first time in 5 years we could be seeing Aguero at his peak in 2018/19. Having scored 5 (3 in the league) goals already he has shown to be a solid captaincy choice for managers. While not fixture proof, you must always consider him when playing at home against someone like Newcastle.
#3 – Eden Hazard – Chelsea – Expected Points 6.19
Eden Hazard has been in and out of the side after Belgium’s run to the world cup semi-finals. With Hazard returning late, Sarri has been unsure of the number of minutes which Eden has been capable of just yet. So far in 133 minutes for Chelsea, he has managed 1 goal and 2 assists. In his last appearance managing to make it through the 90 minutes against Newcastle, capping it off with a goal. While some may have doubted Hazard’s penalty duties with Jorginho on the pitch. The Belgian kept his duties as he notched a contentious penalty away to make it 1-0. Hazard was central to everything Chelsea created, taking 5 shots, corners, and having a pass success of 90%.
With Chelsea struggling to break through Newcastle’s “everyone behind the ball approach” Hazard still looked the most likely throughout, despite being kicked and fouled with regularity. With a 49.45% chance of keeping a clean sheet in game week 1, as well as a 52.49% chance of scoring Hazard is one of the best options in GW4.
#4- Marcos Alonso – Chelsea – Expected Points 5.83
He has performed every week thus far. With a 49.45% chance of keeping a clean sheet for Chelsea this week, he rises up the ranks of the expected points table. Alonso also has a 25.59% chance of scoring and is nailed on to start under Sarri. With his attacking output seemingly unharmed by Sarri’s new system he looks a bargain at 6.7m. As has been said as before, Alonso is essentially a midfielder which gets 4 points for a clean sheet. When comparing him to someone like Pedro or Walcott who would you rather have in your side?
#5- Harry Kane – Spurs– Expected Points 5.56
The curse is over, the king is back. At 12.5m he is tough to bring in. But, can you really be confident that he won’t bring in a massive haul at any point from now? With opening the scoring against Manchester United with a fantastic header, and providing an assist for Moura late on. Kane is looking like a bonafide option in attack. With Moura looking to compliment Kane well, as well as Alli, Eriksen and Son, Kane has plenty of options to provide for him. Not forgetting Davies and Trippier from the wing back roles either. After no signings in the summer many had thought the lack of improvement could have cost Spurs. After winning 3 from their opening 3 they look an outside chance of winning the title. Kane had the following to say about the lack of signings:
“The gaffer said he is not just going to bring in players for the sake of it.” said Kane. Who scored the first of his side’s three goals at Old Trafford. “What that does is give the rest of the squad huge belief because it shows he has belief in us, so now we have to repay him for that and repay the club for that.”
#DIFFERENTIAL! – Theo Walcott – Everton – Expected Points 4.69
Oh, Theo, we’ve been here before. With Theo already rising twice in the wake of Richarlison’s 3 game suspension the former England international has taken his place as the go-to 6.5ish midfield player. Given Walcott’s poor form under Marco Silva’s predecessor, Sam Allardyce, it might be sensible to not jerk that knee just yet. But it is also fair to not judge attacking players under an incredibly defensive manager such as big Sam. With Theo buying into Silva’s high intensity attacking football he looks an asset. He is getting forward with regularity he could be an underrated pick this week as a captaincy option. With 2 goals to his name already he is a goal away from matching his season total from last year. Against a side like Huddersfield who are leaky defensively, he could match that tally early on.
“The way we train is with that high intensity, the manager is bedding that into our system and it’s becoming a habit and that’s what you want it to do.”
“It’s very positive in the group and that’s what you want to be, you want to be around positive people and the boss and the background are definitely very positive.”Silva demands a high intensity pressing game and Walcott said: “That’s what we need to bring to our game.“I think you can sense the style we are playing is completely different to what we are used to and I am thoroughly enjoying it, to be part of the squad and a part of the transition stage as well.“We’ve been playing some really good stuff and I’m really pleased with how we started.”
For alternate choices to our own find the table with all of the player’s expected points below.