In a similar feature to last year, we’re sharing with you who is this week’s most likely point scorers based on an algorithm we’ve created. The points are based on a player’s chance of scoring once, twice, three times a lady…. No sorry, just once and twice. As well as that we add defensive player’s clean sheet points and whether they’re expected to start or not. The variables for starting are ‘Yes’, ‘No’, and ‘Rotation’. With Yes giving a player 2 points, No 0, and Rotation 1. The points are taken from our Clean Sheet Gameweek 11 post and our Goalscorer Probabilities Gameweek 11 post, both of which were shared earlier this week. Using this information we’ll help you choose your captain for Fantasy Football in game week 11.
A midfielder will naturally get more points for scoring, as will a defender, while a forward only gets 4 points. This can often lead to a midfielder with 50% chance of scoring (50% x 5 = 2.5) ending up with a higher expected point tally than a forward with 60% chance of scoring (4 x 60% = 2.4).
In game week 10 the most likely Point scorers were Salah, Mane and Hazard. The bookies weren’t wrong were they?! Salah and Mane picked up 15 points each. 30 points if you had captained either of them. Hazard failed to play unfortunately, but had you viced any of our other suggestions you would be flying up the rankings. Our differential pick of Kiko Femina returned a lovely 12 points. I hate to say a toad a so, but a FRIGGIN A TOAD A SO. 24 points if you captained him.
#1 – Raheem Sterling – Manchester City – Expected Points 6.48
It has been a massive week for Sterling. He is set to sign a new five-year deal which makes him worth 300k a week, and honestly, he is worth it. The Jamaican born Englishman has been one of City’s best players over the last few years and has continued over that form from last season.
Sterling sat out the midweek fixture against Fulham, and given Kevin de Bruyne’s injury, Sterling’s position in the starting XI becomes even more nailed on. With a 54.62% chance of scoring and a massive 58.71% chance of a clean sheet point you’ll be sure to get points from Raz this week.
#2 – Eden Hazard – Chelsea – Expected Points 6.46
Although Hazard was injured in game week 10 it’s expected he’ll be fit for game week 11. However full confirmation will likely be given in the press conference on Friday so perhaps it’s best to wait until then before putting the captain’s armband on Hazard. Hazard is the highest points scorer so far this season with a whopping 75 points already. He has only blanked in two games. A 0-0 draw away to West Ham and also a home draw to Manchester United. His consistency has been instrumental to Chelsea’s unbeaten run in the league. Assuming he plays this week it’s hard not to see if scoring or getting an assist.
#3 – Sergio Aguero – Manchester City– Expected Points 6.34
Aguero is an annoying player to own this season. Having scored 6 goals you would think on paper he has had a good season. He has failed to score in 6 of his 10 games this season. 60% quick maffs. Since game week 2 he has only scored 38 points over a period of 8 game weeks. A tally which averages out at 4.75 points a game.
In comparison, over the last 8 game weeks players like Josh King, Glenn Murray and Alexandre Lacazette have outperformed the Argentinian.
Aubameyang: 59 points, 7.37pg
Lacazette: 50, 6.25pg
Wilson: 49 points, 6.12pg
G. Murray: 40 points, 5pg
Mitrovic: 40 points, 5pg
Aguero has also been subbed out early this season with regularity.
In his last 6 Premier League starts he has been subbed out at:
Averaging 64 mins a game. In spite of this he has a massive 71% chance of scoring and is this week’s most likely scorer. Will he score with his limited time on the pitch? Time will tell.
#DIFFERENTIAL! – Andre Schurrle – Fulham – Expected Points 4.21
It was a tight pick this week for me in the differential. On one hand, I was strongly considering picking Mitrovic, on the other hand, Schurrle has been in much better form. He’s less likely to pick up a yellow card and gets an extra clean sheet point if Fulham ever learn what one of those are. So this weeks differential pick is Andre Schurrle. Owned by just 6.1% Schurrle has been in decent form the last couple of weeks. Despite Fulham losing their last four games they scored three goals and Schurrle has been involved in two of them. We’ve mentioned previously in the other posts just how bad Huddersfield are defensively. I believe that if Fulham do manage to score Schurrle will be no doubt involved. Given his expected points tally of 4.21, we think he can massively surpass that amount.