In a similar feature to last year, we’re sharing with you who is this week’s most likely point scorers based on an algorithm we’ve created. The points are based on a player’s chance of scoring once, twice, three times a lady…. No sorry, just once and twice. As well as that we add defensive player’s clean sheet points and whether they’re expected to start or not. The variables for starting are ‘Yes’, ‘No’, and ‘Rotation’. With Yes giving a player 2 points, No 0, and Rotation 1. The points are taken from our Clean Sheet Gameweek 10 post and our Goalscorer Probabilities Gameweek 10 post, both of which were shared earlier this week. Using this information we’ll help you choose your captain for Fantasy Football in game week 9.
A midfielder will naturally get more points for scoring, as will a defender, while a forward only gets 4 points. This can often lead to a midfielder with 50% chance of scoring (50% x 5 = 2.5) ending up with a higher expected point tally than a forward with 60% chance of scoring (4 x 60% = 2.4).
For reference, 2 of last week’s best captaincy choices Mohamed Salah and Sergio Aguero both scored one whilst both also missing bonus points. Salah pipped Aguero with 8 points thankful for a goal from midfield and a clean sheet to boot. Whilst 3rd choice Raheem Sterling failed to leave the bench, guess which one of the three I captained in my personal XI. Our differential pick Richarlison scored 3 points. 2 selections correct out of 4 isn’t all too shoddy. Check that out by clicking this.
Without further ado, we will give you who is The Bookie’s Captain for Gameweek 10.
#1 – Mohamed Salah – Liverpool – Expected Points 8.03
Mohamed Salah has this season’s highest expected score with Liverpool at home to newly-promoted Cardiff. Liverpool did not impress against Huddersfield, defensively they were solid again, but without Firmino, Mane and a host of other players they relied on Salah’s individual brilliance to get them over the line in a 1-0 win. He is still not passing the eye test though, his build-up play has been poor, service to him has also been poor, he seems to be snatching at chances. Perhaps last season’s fine form has made him worry. Midweek though he performed more admirably scoring twice, though against poorer opposition than he has been playing week in week out. In spite of all of this, he has a 70.8% chance of scoring, a 63% chance of a clean sheet and is without a doubt this weeks captaincy selection with an absolutely mind-blowingly large 8.03 expected points.
#2 – Sadio Mane – Liverpool – Expected Points 6.36
Sadio Mane is the 5th highest scoring midfielder in the game right now with 48 points. The most impressive part of this feat is that he has blanked in his last 5 fixtures, including last weeks against Huddersfield where he didn’t make the matchday squad. Mane’s form almost transferred to the Champions League with the Senegal winger missing a penalty and a rebound from close range. He did manage to score late on and did look threatening, though. Since the international break Mane has been a doubt due to his broken finger, which ruled him out of gameweek 9.
A fixture at home to Cardiff should help his recent run of form. With a 53.35% chance of scoring and a 63% chance of a clean sheet, he is one of the standout options in game week 10. With that being said he is almost 2 whole points below first placed Mohamed Salah, only captain him if you can’t afford Mo in game week 10.
#3 – Eden Hazard – Burnley – Expected Points 6.02
The Belgian struggled with a back injury after Chelsea’s 2-2 draw with Manchester United. While it was said it was due to United’s roughhouse tactics, I personally believe it is due to Hazard carrying Chelsea this season. Given Giroud’s role as a non-scoring striker, and Morata’s incapability to score, the reliance on Hazard has been heavier than ever before at Chelsea. Against Burnley Hazard has just under a 50% chance of scoring and has a 56.68% chance of getting a clean sheet point. Whilst many think Hazard’s injury may only keep him out for Burnley, there is the possibility the injury could rule him out, or even limit his output/minutes against a poor Burnley side. One thing is for certain though, if Hazard starts, everything will continue to go through him against a Burnley side which conceded 5 against City last week. The Chelsea man is ever so slightly over 2 points below Salah this week and is one of the best options in game week 10.
#DIFFERENTIAL! – Kiko Femenia – Watford – Expected Points 4.54
Kiko Femenia has the 22nd highest expected points in game week 10. So why am I choosing him you ask? He’s an attacking wing back against a Huddersfield side which have been deplorably bad this season. Femenia is absolutely dirt cheap at 4.2m and has some lovely fixtures coming up too, whilst you’d be mad to captain him, he could keep a clean sheet against Huddersfield and potentially have an attacking output. I think he’ll score more than his expected points total of 4.54.