Fantasy Football: Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 9

Is Doherty the best defender in the world right now? FPL owners were highly rewarded again by Doherty as he picked up another big score. 15 points in game week 8 and  12 points in game week 7. For just 4.4M he looks an absolute bargain. Wolves have looked very good so far this season as they kept another clean sheet in game week 8.

Liverpool V Manchester City had a shock result of a 0-0. FPL managers that benched their defenders for this game weren’t rewarded( I can relate to this pain)It was another clean sheet for Chelsea this last week as they beat Southampton 0-3.

 

THE DO’S

Manchester City take on Burnley this week in the Etihad. It’s a game where City are extremely like to keep a clean sheet with 64.70% chance. Mendy made his return from ”Injury” in game week 8. Normality should resume with him starting in game week 9. If his price tag is too much of a stretch  Laporte appears to be nailed on and a cheaper alternative.

Liverpool travel to a Huddersfield side who have scored just four goals in eight games. Defensively Liverpool have looked quite strong with Virgil Van Dijk and Allison being the star men defensively. Robertson hasn’t been getting the attacking points recently. However, with Liverpool’s fixture getting easier he could start to rack those points up again. Liverpool have a 59.03% chance of a clean sheet.

The DONT’S

Manchester United should be beside Cardiff and Huddersfield in terms of ”Teams most likely to concede each week”. They’ve been dreadful defensively. In game week 8 they conceded 2 goals within in the opening 10 minutes. This week they face an inform Chelsea side and a Hazard who looks to be in the form of his life. I’ll be baffled if United manage to keep a clean sheet this week and the bookies seem to agree. They have just a 19.46% chance of a clean sheet. David De Gea picking up saves points will probably be more likely.

 

Burnley have got off to a poor start so far this season. Manchester City blanked against Liverpool so unfortunately for Burnley they could be in for the backlash. Burnley are averaging just 14.9 tackles per game which is worrying for them as they tend not to have much possession. For comparison, Fulham have 15.9 average tackles and Cardiff have 16.1. City’s passing will likely cause a lot of problems for the Burnley defence and it’s no surprise to see why they’re bottom of the table. They have just a 4.23% chance of stopping City.

 

TeamTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax OddsExp. Points
Man CityMan City64.70%1.551.622.59
LiverpoolLiverpool59.03%1.691.732.36
WolvesWolverhampton43.48%2.32.381.74
ChelseaChelsea42.70%2.342.451.71
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle41.59%2.42.451.66
EvertonEverton39.47%2.532.621.58
ArsenalArsenal38.27%2.612.751.53
SpursSpurs34.98%2.862.91.4
BournemouthBournemouth33.36%33.11.33
BrightonBrighton30.35%3.293.41.21
CardiffCardiff30.25%3.313.41.21
FulhamFulham26.20%3.8241.05
WatfordWatford22.95%4.364.550.92
SouthamptonSouthampton22.51%4.444.750.9
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace21.98%4.554.750.88
Man UnitedMan Utd19.46%5.145.50.78
West HamWest Ham18.09%5.5360.72
LeicesterLeicester12.15%8.238.60.49
HuddersfieldHuddersfield11.67%8.579.20.47
BurnleyBurnley4.23%23.67290.17
[Total: 0    Average: 0/5]

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