Fantasy Football: Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 17

THE DO’S

Spurs may face a tough task of beating Barcelona midweek, but face the less daunting task of facing Burnley on Saturday. The Clarets have been absolutely horrendous away from home, only scoring in 3 of their 8 appearances, whilst only winning once. They have managed to score against West Ham, Cardiff and Fulham, whilst failing to score against Palace, Leicester, City, Wolves and Southampton. It has been clear to many that Burnley have been struggling on the road. With a massive Champions League fixture it is unknown as to how strong a side Spurs will play against Burnley, given the gulf in class you can expect some rotation. Alderweireld could feature, but given Trippier and Aurier are ruled out midweek, he could be playing in an untested defensive unit which could cause him troubles if both fail to return.

Manchester City are one of this week’s most likely sides to keep a clean sheet. Given City face Hoffenheim at home in a fixture which is absolutely pointless to them given they are already through to the knockout stage you can expect mass rotation midweek and a full strength side to be played in their home tie to Everton. Though with Pep you never fully know who will start. The only nailed on option in the backline seems to be Ederson, with other options such as Laporte and Walker being most likely to start should they be fit.. With that being said, City have often been over 50%, they’ve only kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, often conceding silly goals. With a run of 4 good fixtures, including 2 home fixtures in their next 2 gameweeks, it might be advisable to stock up on City assets.

THE DON’TS

Man United face a Liverpool side which are the only unbeaten side in the Premier League this season. Liverpool have only failed to score once, against a City side which set up to frustrate Liverpool. Given United’s form defensively as of late they will be unlikely to repeat the feat of their fellow Manchester side. With United’s fixtures turning good after this game week, I wouldn’t advise you to remove defensive assets. I would advise you to bench them in this fixture though. Just ignore the fact that this fixture has ended 0-0 in the last 2 times the pair have met in Anfield. An omen? I think not.

Manchester City face an Everton side which have started to look more defensively sound over the last few weeks. The Blues have only conceded 4 goals in their last 5 games with Monday night’s fixture against Watford accounting for 50% of their goals. Considering they kept a clean sheet against Chelsea and were incredibly unlucky to concede against Liverpool they may continue in their upturn of form. Given that they’re against a City which have scored 45 goals this season, more goals than Everton have scored and concede, it is incredibly unlikely that they will keep a clean sheet. While Digne may score free kicks, he won’t be stopping City from scoring.

TeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax OddsExp. Points
Tottenham57.43%1.741.832.3
Chelsea51.65%1.942.032.07
Man City51.26%1.952.032.05
Watford46.35%2.162.251.85
Liverpool41.88%2.392.451.68
Huddersfield39.96%2.52.551.6
Wolves36.65%2.732.811.47
Crystal Palace36.34%2.752.821.45
Leicester32.95%3.043.151.32
Newcastle32.85%3.043.151.31
Arsenal32.10%3.123.31.28
West Ham26.28%3.8141.05
Fulham23.54%4.254.50.94
Bournemouth22.38%4.474.650.9
Cardiff19.39%5.165.50.78
Southampton18.08%5.535.80.72
Man Utd15.46%6.4770.62
Brighton14.80%6.767.30.59
Burnley7.66%13.0615.50.31
Everton7.27%13.7515.50.29
[Total: 0    Average: 0/5]

Paddy Keogh-Goode

I'm an avid fan of football and a season ticket holder for Bohemian FC in Ireland. I've supported Man United as long as I've known football, and tried to play until I was unable to. I used to work as a trader and have always had an interest in gambling. This website combines the two interests and hopefully helps a few others in making better decisions

Paddy Keogh-Goode

Paddy Keogh-Goode

I'm an avid fan of football and a season ticket holder for Bohemian FC in Ireland. I've supported Man United as long as I've known football, and tried to play until I was unable to. I used to work as a trader and have always had an interest in gambling. This website combines the two interests and hopefully helps a few others in making better decisions

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