Only Arsenal this week have greater than a 50% chance of keeping a clean sheet at home to Huddersfield, meaning that you’ll be unlikely to be getting massive amounts of points from your defenders in a week which involves an away trip for Liverpool and a clash of two of this year’s title challengers in Chelsea and City. This week gives two do’s which on paper look likely to concede, but the bookie’s often know better than I. Without further delay, I present you with the clean sheet probabilities for gameweek 16.
Arsenal are one of this week’s clear favourites to keep a clean sheet, I’m not sure that says more about Arsenal’s defence or Huddersfield’s attack. The terriers are without Steve Mounie after his ban was upheld for a dangerous challenge against Brighton and could struggle against an Arsenal side which have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 8 Premier League fixtures. Which is uninspiring form to say the least. Sead Kolasinac has looked good for Arsenal since coming back from injury and is a major attacking outlet for the Gunners. With Monreal still unfit he is a good option into the Arsenal defence for their run of fixtures.
I’d sooner drink sour milk than bet on it, but Manchester United look like one of this week’s most likely clean sheet options. With almost a 50% chance of a clean sheet, they’re this week’s number 2 when it comes to probability. In reality, United have looked poor defensively, conceding more shots at home to Crystal Palace and have been decimated by injuries to their defensive unit over the last few weeks. They come up against a Fulham side which look destined for relegation unless more big signings are made in January. Ranieri has promised the team McDonalds if they keep a clean sheet. He might need to promise more than that if he is to leave Old Trafford with points, even if it isn’t the fortress it once was. David de Gea and Luke Shaw would be most likely to start in this fixture, probably alongside Matic and McTominay in defence, knowing Mou’s selections this season. With 2 goals conceded against Arsenal midweek and the prospect of Marcos Rojo starting for Manchester United, this has to be the least confident Do, we’ve suggested.
Huddersfield face an Arsenal side which look capable of scoring against anyone. After thrashing Spurs 4-2 in the London derby and scoring twice against United and threatening more, Arsenal look a side likely to cause most sides trouble. Aubameyang looks a man inspired and Lacazette has found home at Arsenal after a difficult first year in London. Emery is creating a special attacking side. With the attackers being unselfish and midfielders looking capable of scoring, Huddersfield could struggle to deal with Arsenal’s pace, skill and intelligent offensive play. Stay clear unless you want to get 1 point or less.
Bournemouth face Liverpool at home in a tie which is sure to guarantee goals, with Liverpool being the favourites to score them. We already know about Liverpool’s attacking talents in Firmino, Shaqiri, Mane and Salah, but what isn’t said is how poor Eddie Howe’s record against Liverpool has been, with the Merseysiders winning 3-0 and 4-0 in the League last season, whilst conceding 5 against them in league the season prior. Jurgen Klopp seems to know how to find a way to score against the Cherries, and it is unlikely to stop in a fixture which should delight the neutral fan. Given Klopp’s insistence on rotation against Burnley, his side almost came undone due to his big 3 not starting. With Firmino and Salah coming off the bench they helped finish off Burnley in what should have been an easier result for the Merseysiders. With Bournemouth conceding against Huddersfield and likely to face a fully fit attacking trident, you’d expect roughly 1 point or less from the Cherries backline. Steer clear.
|Team||Team||Implied Probability||Average Odds||Max Odds||Exp. Points|
|Man United||Man Utd||49.50%||2.02||2.05||1.98|
|West Ham||West Ham||36.01%||2.78||2.9||1.44|
|Man City||Man City||32.54%||3.07||3.25||1.3|
|Crystal Palace||Crystal Palace||25.35%||3.95||4||1.01|