Fantasy Football: Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 11

Gameweek 10 led to a number of clean sheets. Brighton, Bournemouth, Watford all won their games without conceding on Saturday. Southampton and Newcastle played out the only 0-0 of the weekend. Chelsea were the only team to keep a clean sheet on Sunday.

Ryan currently looks to be a bonus point magnet. In the last three weeks, Brighton have kept three clean sheets.  Ryan has an average 10 points per game in his last three games an excellent score for a lower tier goalkeeper.  Alonso owners finally got some attacking returns as Alonso picked up an assist at the weekend. Despite Everton being poor defensively, Jordan Pickford saved another penalty in game week 10. That’s back to back penalty saves for Pickford. Everton conceded two goals against Manchester United but Pickford got the 3 bonus points and getting 11 points total.

Kiko Femenia was tipped as our differential captain choice last week. He picked up a clean sheet, assist and also the three bonus points. I can’t imagine many opted to captain him. Although, it’s good to see our selections are looking quite accurate.

THE DO’S

Manchester City take on a side that have failed to score in their last in their last 5 league games. I repeat. Southampton have not scored in their last 5 league games. That is an absolute baffling stat. So we all know what that means right? They’ll score this week against the most likely team to keep a clean sheet. Bookies favourites this week is none other than Manchester City with a  58.71% chance of keeping a clean sheet. I’m personally surprised it’s not higher. Mendy and Laporte both picked up a clean sheet on Monday night as Manchester City beat Spurs 0-1.

Everton take on Brighton this week and the most interesting thing about that match will be which keeper will return more points. Jordan Pickford V Ryan. Everton are third on the table this week with a 45.98% chance of a clean sheet despite Glenn Murray being in excellent form. Brighton haven’t conceded in three weeks yet only have a 20.08% of keeping a clean sheet this week. Seamus Coleman was quite attacking against Manchester United it’s worth noting that he’s a guaranteed starter for Everton at just 5.2M. Digne has also seemed to nail down the left-back position instead of Baines. He’s 4.8M

The DONT’S

Fulham just like conceding goals I think. Every week you’re guaranteed that they’ll concede a goal. It’s mindblowing how Jokanvoic hasn’t tried to tighten up the defence. In 10 game weeks they have conceded  28 goals. Nearly average 3 goals conceded per game. In comparison, Cardiff has conceded 23 whilst Huddersfield have conceded 21. It’s worth noting that Fulham have conceded every game week, so not a single clean sheet all season. Baffling. Anyway, they have a 25.09% chance of a clean sheet against Huddersfield. This Huddersfield side have only scored 4 goals so far this season. If ever there was a time for Fulham to keep a clean sheet it would be this game week. I wouldn’t bank on it tho.

Arsenal defenders are definitely ones to avoid this week or bench them at least. They gave away two penalties against Crystal Palace and drew the game 2-2. If they’re conceding penalties like that to Palace I’d be worried about how they’ll cope with Mane Firmino and Salah’s pace. Arsenal have just a 19.73% chance of a clean sheet which is higher than I expected. It’ll be Emery’s first big test since Arsenal have found form and it’ll be interesting to see how they cope against a top 6 side now. Arsenal have played two of the top six already( Manchester City and Chelsea) and have lost both games.

TeamTeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax OddsExp. Points
Man CityMan City58.71%1.71.782.35
ChelseaChelsea52.83%1.891.912.11
EvertonEverton45.98%2.182.251.84
West HamWest Ham45.22%2.212.291.81
LeicesterLeicester39.18%2.552.631.57
SpursSpurs35.97%2.782.921.44
Newcastle UnitedNewcastle35.51%2.822.881.42
Man UnitedMan Utd32.45%3.083.21.3
WatfordWatford32.32%3.093.21.29
HuddersfieldHuddersfield32.18%3.113.21.29
CardiffCardiff27.97%3.583.751.12
LiverpoolLiverpool26.89%3.723.91.08
WolvesWolverhampton25.32%3.954.051.01
FulhamFulham25.09%3.994.151
BurnleyBurnley22.15%4.514.750.89
BournemouthBournemouth21.99%4.554.750.88
BrightonBrighton20.08%4.985.10.8
ArsenalArsenal19.73%5.075.50.79
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace9.66%10.36120.39
SouthamptonSouthampton5.20%19.22210.21

 

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