Expected Points #GW12 – Odds On #FPL

So another week of FPL where a lot of the big guns play against weaker opposition. With Chelsea playing West Brom, City playing Leicester and Spurs playing Arsenal a lot of the bigger sides are playing much weaker opposition. Liverpool host Southampton, a side which have once again under performed this season laying in 13th position, with Mohamed Salah close to leading the scoring the charts as well as being this week’s most likely point scorer with 5.72 points.

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FAQ: We rate our player’s sum expectancy points off of a table which we edit with regularity, but as only I monitor it there can be players which are down as expected starters when in reality they are not. If you wish to look at the list of expected starters you can find it here: https://oddsonfpl.com/nailed-on-or-not/


With Gabriel Jesus the only striker out of himself and Sergio Aguero not to faint during international duty, you’d most likely think the Brazilian would start this weekend for Manchester City. The 20-year-old has been directly involved in 33 goals in his last 35 games for club and country, what a player. Ex-Blue Paul Dickov summed up how dangerous it is for City to pick up an injury during the international break:

Romelu Lukaku was Belgium’s top scorer, then he wasn’t, sort of like how he was Premier League top scorer, then he stopped scoring. With his animalistic natures taking over in an interview recently, the striker is as confident as ever and could net against Newcastle. Big Rom is expected to score 5.43 points this game week.

“I was born to score. I don’t think many strikers of my generation have as many goals as me. I am like a leopard in the box.”

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Mohamed Salah is this week’s TOP EXPECTED POINT SCORER! Surprisingly many people still haven’t brought in Salah after his early-season exploits. Those dumb, dumb, people – I include myself on that list. The Egyptian has taken the division by storm and was rested for the national side after guiding them to the World Cup. Look how happy he is, surely that means he’s about to score a hat trick? Please say no.


Leroy Sane is one of those players who many expected to have a good season, that was until he started the season and barely got any minutes under Pep. That, and when he did get minutes it was out of position as a left wing back to accommodate Vincent Kompany. Since Kompany has gotten injured Sane has come back into the side and shown exactly what he is about, scoring, assisting and leaving defenders on their arses. Jogi Loew recently sniffed his pits and praised Sane’s progression over the last season, after the midfielder missed out on the confederations cup.

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Does anyone else think that Charlie Daniels as a name sounds like someone who would canvass for UKIP or be that annoying vegan kid who doesn’t like hot dogs? Remeber Charlie Daniels‘ BLOOTER against Manchester City earlier in the season? We memba. He’s expected to score a massive 4.67 points. While we think that that goal against Manchester City could be the anomaly, instead of the norm, the bookies still think the Cherries are likely to keep a clean sheet against Huddersfield.

Marcos Alonso has gone from essential to essentially useless over the course of 5 game weeks. The wing-back is expected to score 5.41 points this game week, but with fans thinking he is done at the club as of late, and horrendously out of form there are probably better options to have, especially given the cost of the Spaniard.

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Rather than going with the two most likely point scorers this week David de Gea (4.41) and Thibault Courtois (4.04) I’ve chosen to look further down the table to sides which normally aren’t expected to compete for league titles or silverware.

Nick Pope has been a fantastic replacement for what has to be the most called up player for England without a cap, Tom Heaton. While Pope hasn’t had healing powers to resurrect his injured team-mate, the backup stopper has shown he is more than a capable deputy. He is expected to get 3.83 points this game week.

For the second of our non-title-challenging keepers, we have none other than Simon Mignolet of Liverpool…. Yes, I support Manchester United… Yes, I will forever remember Demba Ba… Yes, I have never witnessed Liverpool win the league in my 26 years…. and yes, Liverpool fans do massively underrate Simon Mignolet. Mignolet is expected to get 3.89 points this game week, the third highest in the league.

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