Expected Points #GW11 – Odds On #FPL

11 weeks in and its no surprise to see the Premier League’s best player Harry Kane leading the line for Spurs and being the most likely point scorer once again. With Kane expected to score 6.43 points this week, a lot of players which swapped him out last week could return for Kane. In fact he has already risen by 0.1m overnight, which could increase again before the week starts.

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Pep’s rotation policy means that nobody really knows who will start for Man City, but with Sergio Aguero starting in the Champions League midweek, you’d sort of expect Gabriel Jesus to start their Premier League fixture this game week. Jesus has an expectancy of 5.52 points, making him the 4th highest expected point scorer this week. Just be prepared for the wheel of rotation.


OC by /u/al4luke on /r/fantasypl 

Jamie Vardy really has proven over the last 2 seasons he wasn’t a flash in the pan and is actually a quality striker with continental class not known to Fleetwood. With Leicester playing Stoke, a side which have been conceding goals by the dozen, Vardy has is expected to score 4.19 points.

Roberto Firmino‘s season hasn’t been awful, but the Brazilian hasn’t shone as much as his ridiculous teeth have. Firmino was fantastic against Maribor and megged more men than a man megs men. With 4.47 expected points he could be a good cheap option up front this week.

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Mohamed Salah comes up against a West Ham side which are legitimate relegation contenders going by early season form. So far Mo has validated his high fee and looks to be one of the bargains of the summer. With 5.42 expected points it is the 2nd highest point expectancy from a midfielder this game week. Salah surprisingly didn’t win player of the month given his brilliant form, with Dejan Lovren given the pity vote after his own fans sent him death threats. YNWA.

With Spurs playing in Europe there could be a case for Heung-Min Son in game week 11. 5.4 expected points, but could be more if he does start. The Korean winger – striker – attacking midfielder has a 54.74% chance of scoring, meaning that if he does start, he will be the most likely point scorer from midfield this week. A very good differential pick if he does start, but also a potential 1 pointer. He could be worth the risk.

Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting has more names than goals this season. The Stoke ‘midfielder’ is expected to amass 4.38 points according to the bookies. Despite being listed as a midfielder, he has been playing as a striker for Stoke this season. With Berahino so desperately out of form for the last 14 years, EMCM as he is known for short, by literally nobody, has been given the chance to make the striker role his own. While he has struggled in front of goal he has managed to tag Mame Biram Diouf as 50 Cent on Instagram and that has made him totally worth the while in my own side.

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Jan Vertonghen will be organising a makeshift Tottenham side with Spurs taking a number of injuries midweek against Real Madrid. He comes up against an incredibly poor Palace side which have struggled for goals all season long, with Zaha his only real threat he could amass more than his 4.9 expected points.

Jamaal Lascelles has gone massively under the radar this season at Newcastle. The Newcastle defender has scored more league goals this season than Cristiano Ronaldo, I think is more of a say of how poor Ronaldo has been than how good Lascelles has been. The Newcastle defender is expected to score 4.44 points. 

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Michel Vorm makes perhaps his only start of the season in place of Hugo Lloris who is out injured. The Dutch stopper was once Swansea’s starting goalkeeper and has international experience, but has struggled for game time since moving to Tottenham in 2014. With undoubted quality in reserve throughout the Spurs squad, they are still likely to keep a clean sheet even without their starting keeper, Ben Davies, and Alderweireld. If you have a free hit card, Vorm could be a fantastic way to get Spurs coverage for this gameweek. Vorm is expected to get 4.13 points.

Fraser Forster is the only other goalkeeper this week which is expected to exceed 4 points. If anyone has watched Southampton within the last 12 months it’d be hard to find a reason for anyone to rate Fraser as highly as the bookies have. He is expected to get a grand total of 4.08 points.

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