Clean Sheet Probabilities – FPL Gameweek 30

DO’S

Despite Liverpool failing to beat Everton they did manage a clean sheet in what would have been considered a dull affair between the two. Whilst Liverpool have struggled in front of goal, their own goal has been safer than ever. The Reds have kept 5 clean sheets in a row, including a home 0-0 to Bayern, and an away 0-0 to Manchester United. Liverpool take on a Burnley side which will be a much-needed win for them. Liverpool have dropped to second in the table following a succession of draws, the Merseyside club have drawn 4 of their last 6 Premier League fixtures allowing City back into the title race. Robertson, Virgil Van Dijk and Trent Alexander Arnold are all fantastic options over the coming weeks, and don’t blank. Doubling up on Liverpool’s defensive assets is a legitimate option and should be considered a real possibility.  Pool have a 58.29% chance of a clean sheet.

Manchester City managed a 0-1 win against Bournemouth in gameweek 29. Many expected goals, but those that have the City defenders were the benefactors. One thing to take from the game was that Boruc from Bourenmouth made 7 saves and picked up 2 bonus points. On another day City could have ran riot, but not with the holy goalie at the helm. City take on a Watford side which will be a much-needed win for them. Deeney has been in form lately, as has Deulofeu, with the two linking up well as a front two. If you are to ignore Liverpool’s 5-0 thrashing their form aside from them has pushed them comfortably up the table. Otamendi picked up the 3 bonus points last week but will likely be rotated this week with Champions League football awaiting. Ederson is just about the only nailed on defender in the side. City have a 56.64% chance of a clean sheet.

DONT’S

The two teams who we don’t suggest having defenders from were mentioned above. Essentially just don’t have defenders from teams which face City and Liverpool away from home. That is no different for Burnley or Watford, who have a 7.09% and 5.35% chance of keeping a clean sheet.

TeamImplied ProbabilityAverage OddsMax OddsExp. Points
Liverpool58.29%1.721.832.33
Man City56.64%1.771.832.27
Crystal Palace46.80%2.142.251.87
Chelsea46.20%2.162.21.85
Leicester42.62%2.352.451.7
Spurs37.83%2.642.751.51
Bournemouth36.93%2.712.821.48
West Ham34.18%2.933.051.37
Newcastle United34.32%2.9131.37
Everton34.17%2.933.051.37
Huddersfield30.05%3.333.451.2
Arsenal27.18%3.683.91.09
Cardiff26.77%3.7441.07
Brighton23.71%4.224.330.95
Man United23.72%4.224.450.95
Southampton19.76%5.065.30.79
Fulham17.47%5.7360.7
Wolves16.61%6.026.50.66
Burnley7.09%14.11160.28
Watford5.36%18.67210.21

 

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