According to the Bookies: Expected Points GW16

I swear, I’ve been arguing all week with Shano about us not getting in Salah for the OddsOnFPL team due to me doubting that the Egyptian will be more likely to score against Everton than Dele Alli would be against Stoke City. But Mohamed Salah, unsurprisingly to pretty much everyone but me, comes up trumps as this week’s most likely point scorer. Salah has a point expectancy of 6.4, making him this week’s undoubted captaincy choice.

As a prelude, the point expectancies are gotten from players which are expected to start and an average of their goalscoring probabilities and clean sheet probabilities. The probabilities are multiplied by the player positions and added together alongside a variable for whether the player will start or not.

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Unfortunately, Alvaro Morata was not fully rested midweek for Chelsea’s fixture against Atletico Madrid, but he did get subbed in the 81st minute. Morata scored last week against Newcastle and will be hoping to repeat the feat against West Ham in GW16. His link up play with Hazard has been exquisite and they look very threatening together. With Moyes confirming that Cheikhou Kouyate is out of the fixture West Ham’s defence will have less coverage from midfield which could improve Chelsea’s chances of scoring. Morata has a points expectancy of 4.80.

Roberto Firmino only managed to score 1 goal against Spartak midweek.  However, he was subbed in the 72nd minute to be replaced by Daniel Sturridge. Firmino scored 2 last week against Brighton and looks to be hitting a bit of form again. His point expectancy is 4.88.

Harry Kane, as usual, is near the top of the rankings. His point expectancy is extremely high at 5.89 points, making him the most likely point scorer out of all the attacking players this week. Yet he’s been so disappointing lately for FPL Owners with Kane regularly blanking. So Harry, please just score.

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Aaron Ramsey has been in sensational form lately and looks a steal at 7.2M as a cheap option into the Arsenal attack. Since GW9 Ramsey has only blanked once getting 3 points against Spurs. Arsenal are away to Southampton this week and Ramsey’s expected points are 3.75, something which we feel the bookies may have underpriced.

Christian Eriksen was rested midweek in the champions league. Spurs have been very underwhelming in recent weeks and returns have been poor for Eriksen also, although he did manage an assist last week. His first assist since GW2. Spurs take on Stoke in a game where they are massive favourites, it’s no surprise that Eriksen’s expected points are 4.53.

Salah has been getting all the praise recently, but midweek it was Philippe Coutinho who ran the show against Spartak Moscow. Coutinho scored a hat-trick and looks to be on penalties for Liverpool now. Interesting. In GW15 he managed to get 3 assists and a goal getting him a whopping 18 points. Liverpool come up against their local foes Everton at home in GW 16, a fixture which they almost consider a guaranteed 3 points. Coutinho has a points expectancy of 5.41, making him the 3rd most likely point scorer from midfield in GW16. Behind his two Liverpool compatriots Mane and Salah. Unsurprising.

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Swansea City take on West Brom and Kyle Naughton looks to be a nice cheap option to have at 4.6M. Swansea have been struggling to play any decent football lately. Perhaps its their insistence on spending 18 million on Sam Clucas, perhaps its Renato Sanches‘ inability to pass a ball to his team mate, perhaps it is due to Swansea just being utterly shite. Who knows? Back to the point, Kyle Naughton’s point expectancy is 3.81 points. I’m still not sure how he is a Premier League footballer, mind you.

Jan Vertonghen may have no other natural defenders alongside him in GW 16 due to Davinson Sanchez’s dodgy elbows, and Toby Alderweireld’s dodgy hamstring. Starting alongside him will most likely be Eric Dier. Spurs have been poor defensively of late, conceding in fixtures which they were more likely to keep a clean sheet in. With a fixture against Stoke at home, you would expect Vertongen to keep a clean sheet. At 4.77 expected points he is this week’s second most likely point scorer. If you are considering bringing him in, please do account for the fact he is one yellow away from a 1 game suspension.

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Due to Wayne Hennessey being out injured, Julian Speroni has stepped up to the plate for Crystal Palace. Palace haven’t conceded in their last two games while the stopper has been in and I’m sure fans are delighted to see the back of Hennessey. Speroni played last week and managed to obtain 11 points with some fans comparing the shit bearded stopper to a magnet. Bournemouth haven’t exactly been scoring for fun lately, which gives Crystal Palace a good chance of a clean sheet. Speroni’s point expectancy is 3.62.

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