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Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 31#FPL

With just the 4 games this week it could be a good week to make up some ground on the ‘casuals’.  Liverpool are comfortably top of the table with a 55.03% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Watford evidently the most likely to concede as they face Liverpool and have just a 7.59% chance of stopping them scoring.

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4 months ago No Comments

OddsOnFPL – Gameweek 30 Preview #FPL

Only the one transfer this week, we bring in Steve Mounie for the injured Mame Biram Diouf. Mounie has a lovely run of fixtures and is set to play in the blank game week. I’m off to the Bohs game and Shano is in a ditch somewhere. This leaves our bank 0.4m shorter than last week and still allows for us to trade out Rob Elliot for any stopper next week giving us another player for the blank game week.

Mounie’s form as of late has been inspired, and could be a good 3rd choice striker over the next few weeks.

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4 months ago No Comments

Goalscorer Probabilities and Expected Points – Gameweek 30

It is considered a bit of a faux pas to recommend a defender to be your captain, but in gameweek 30, we’re mixing it up! Marcos Alonso leads the expected points for this game week with 6.18 points, followed closely by Chelsea team-mate Eden Hazard with 6.0 expected points. Surprisingly Harry Kane is only ranked tied 4th highest, with the Spurs talisman only expected to get 5.5 points. (Sorry to those expecting a hat trick, the bookies just don’t see it). Do beware, a lot of your transfers won’t play next week, and game week 31’s most likely point scorers are less likely to score well this week, with Liverpool playing United away from home, Bournemouth playing Spurs, and Everton being Everton.

FORWARDS

Harry Kane, the 5 season wonder, is looking to repeat the unthinkable and score against Bournemouth. Harry has scored 6 goals in 4 matches against Bournemouth but failed to score against them earlier in the season. Given his average of 1.5 goals against the Cherries he is a definite captaincy option this game week. With Gareth Southgate set to name him as England’s new captain, he could prosper in a new role.

Alvaro Morata has been one of the most disappointing signings in recent memory in the Premier League. The Spaniard wasn’t in the starting XI against Manchester City last week and has been utterly awful since the turn of the year, with his snowball throwing ability matching his finishing. Awful. With that being said Chelsea play Crystal Palace, a side which absolutely capitulated against Manchester United last game week, conceding 3 in the second half. This could be a game week where both Morata and Wayne Hennessey try and outdo one another in their ineptitude. I’d have my money on Hennessey out performing in under performing.

MIDFIELDERS

Son Heung-Min was devastating and devastated midweek against Juventus. The Spurs winger is currently the second most dangerous Korean in the world and has proven that over the last two seasons. While he found it hard to hold back the tears after getting knocked out of the Champions League early, Sonny comes up against a Bournemouth side which doesn’t keep clean sheets. If Son presses his red button he could smash a porous Howe side into oblivion, if you don’t have him you should seriously consider it.

Marko Arnautovic looks like the type of bloke who would ask you for change, but he can also seriously change a side’s form and change matches. The Austrian winger has been playing up top as of late and has performed admirably for the Hammers. Arnie has scored 6 goals and assisted 3 times in his last 11 games, but has only scored once in his last 4, whilst assisting none of the games. While he is expected to have a tough task unlocking a normally solid Burnley side, his biggest issue could be the man in the middle. Lee Mason previously sent off Arnatovic for an elbow at the beginning of the season, he should be on his best behavior.

DEFENDERS

Marcos Alonso is as inconsistent my internet connection, at his peak, he could score 20 points, but a lot of the time he gets 2. The Spaniard has come out over the week saying that Luis Enrique would be a fantastic manager for any side in the world, pushing further doubt on his manager, Conte’s, precarious role. With a poor performance against City last week, Alonso will be looking to impress with a World Cup place on the line.

Nicolas Otamendi is a fantastic footballer, and also an absolute dirty player. He scored an offside goal last week, and was rested for the second leg of the Champions League tie against Basel. He is likely to start and could bag a goal, but also will most likely get a yellow in the process.

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4 months ago No Comments

Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 30 #FPL

It’s tight at the top this week with Chelsea just edging it. Chelsea have a 54.48% chance of keeping a clean sheet, something they have failed to do in their last four 4 games in all competitions.

The most baffling probability this week is the fact Everton are 4th highest on the table with a 41.84% chance. Perhaps they’re this high because Ashley Williams is suspended.

Manchester United(30.14%) & Liverpool(28.13%) face off this week meaning their defenders are probably best to avoid this week

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4 months ago No Comments

OddsOnFPL – Gameweek 29 Preview #FPL

Hi everyone, this is a weekly blog post where we document changes to our team based on bookie’s odds. We have been doing this since game week one and have shared with you our progress and regression thus far. This is not a wildcard XI, or a team of the best possible players, this is an actual team which we have had since GW1 and have made changes to throughout the season. Currently, we’re 625,552nd in the world and aim to be top 1% by the end of the season with the help of the bookies. To view the team click the following link: OddsonFPLTeam

To join our league use the following code: Auto-Join Link

An above average haul last week brought us up another 19,000 places going up 625,552nd in the world. With our transfer of Dawson proving worthwhile despite West Brom conceding twice. Craig scored and has already proven a decent addition to the back line. With only on transfer to use this week, we’ve transferred out Sergio Aguero for Harry Kane. Kane is the second highest expected point scorer this week and Aguero faces a good Chelsea side at home.

Of the substitutes, Gudmundsson starts over Diouf due to his higher expected points tally, with Jones being ruled out Smalling stays another week before most likely getting dumped. Joe Gomez stays despite Alexander Arnold seemingly nailing down the full back slot. Klopp had the following to say:

“At the moment, all the players are fit and want to play. That is a good sign. They are keeping the pressure up with their performances. There is (wingback) Trent (Alexander-Arnold), for example,” Klopp is quoted as saying by The Times.

“Now Joe (Gomez) needs to show up after being out for one or two games. Stuff like that. Alberto (Moreno) went out with injury then Robbo (Andrew Robertson) came in. I do not need to say anything.”

Other sites like football-talk are expecting a return for Gomez, but really, who knows right now? All I know is if he does return I’d expect a decent return at home to Newcastle.

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5 months ago No Comments

Goalscorer Probabilities and Expected Points – Gameweek 29

With Spurs beating Rochdale on Wednesday they officially are out of the running of playing in Game Week 31. Last night Manchester City showed their class once more against an Arsenal side far their inferior, but something to consider was that Gabriel Jesus made a return from injury, potentially making Sergio Aguero’s position become rotational over the coming weeks. With the title all but wrapped up the Argentine’s starting XI spot may be kept for the Champions League nights. This week’s most likely point scorers come from Spurs and Liverpool, with Mohamed Salah again miles ahead of Harry Kane with 1.03 points more than the Spurs talisman. Salah tops the list with 7.06, with no other players having 6 or more expected points this game week, you’d be daft to choose a differential, especially given his consistency this season.

FORWARDS

Harry Kane tops the scoring charts and this week’s charts again for a striker with 6.03 points. With a late winner against Palace last week, in what could be seen as predictable by many, the Englishman finished on a high note after missing many glorious opportunities. Harry should be looking to continue his fine form against Huddersfield. Though a little bit of me thinks Poch may consider resting him with a crucial home tie against Juventus coming up.

Pierre Emerick Aubameyang may have missed a penalty against City last night and dropped 0.1m in the process overnight, but the Gabonese international has the quality in his possession to score for any side in the world. Despite Arsenal’s poor showing and the media giving them nothing but abuse since the League Cup final, the former Dortmund man will be looking for a good run in the league due to being cup-tied in the Europa League. Arsenal play Brighton, Watford, Stoke, Southampton, Newcastle and then West Ham in their 6 next league ties, you’d be expecting PEA to score at least 18 in this ties.

MIDFIELD

Mohamed Salah needs nothing to be said apart from, sign him and captain him.

Spurs midfielder, Son, Alli and Eriksen all rank highly this week, with Son coming out on top with 5.79 points. There has been some rotation in the ranks as of late so be careful when choosing. Son played 67 minutes, Alli was subbed on, and Eriksen sat on the bench. If you wanted to play it safely, Eriksen most likely will play 90 against Huddersfield.

DEFENDERS

Virgil Van Dijk comes with a hefty price tag in the game and in reality. While VVD hasn’t kept many clean sheets as of late for Liverpool, but his strength and composure has somewhat enhanced Liverpool’s attacking ability due to other players being more scope to attack with him behind him than before. Emre Can is one of the main benefactors. He is a tank who will only improve with time.

With Serge Aurier getting banned in Europe for fouling a lot, he is nailed on in the Premier League for the foreseeable future. He missed a sitter last week and doesn’t know how to throw in a football, but he has undeniable talent hidden behind a knack for fouling. The Ivorian bombs down the flanks and almost plays as a right-winger. A definite differential.

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5 months ago No Comments

Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 29#FPL

 

Spurs are top of the table this week and are the only team to have a 60%+ chance of keeping a clean sheet. Spurs haven’t conceded in their last 5 home games in all competitions. They have a 62.46% chance of keeping a clean sheet as Huddersfield travel to Wembley this week.

Liverpool(51.72%) and Manchester United(50.53%) battled it out for 2nd place in the table this week just like in the league. Bookies slightly fancy Liverpool to keep a clean sheet against Newcastle.

At just a 15.72% chance of keeping a clean sheet. Chelsea defenders are best avoided this week as they travel to the Etihad

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5 months ago No Comments

OddsOnFPL – Gameweek 28 Preview #FPL

Hi everyone, this is a weekly blog post where we document changes to our team based on bookie’s odds. We have been doing this since game week one and have shared with you our progress and regression thus far. This is not a wildcard XI, or a team of the best possible players, this is an actual team which we have had since GW1 and have made changes to throughout the season. Currently, we’re 644,330th in the world and aim to be top 1% by the end of the season with the help of the bookies. To view the team click the following link: OddsonFPLTeam

To join our league use the following code: Auto-Join Link

What a week! What an incredible week! 105 points helped us move 330k places up to 644,330th in the world! Not a major move but we’re slowly moving up the ranks and are well prepared for the blank game week with already 6 players in our squad available for it. With some tough fixtures for teams like Chelsea, Arsenal, United and City it is looking good right now to have a massive amount of Liverpool coverage.

Our one transfer this week is Otamendi (4.06) out for Craig Dawson (4.90) who plays the blank game week. With City’s fixtures turning sour and Pep set to rotate because he can’t resist the Argentinian card magnet finally leaves the squad after many memorable goals and point tallies. Dawson also has some nice fixtures on the horizon and plays in GW31. We had pondered taking out Smalling instead of Otamendi, but with Jones confirmed to be ruled out, he most likely keeps his place against Chelsea in what screams a bore draw. Smalling also had 0.01 more expected points. MASSIVE.

As Diouf and Gudmundsson both had 3.51 expected points we used a random choice generator (super scientific) and were told to go with the ONE, Mame Biram Diouf.

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McCarthy – 3.5

Dawson– 4.90

Smalling – 4.07

Federico Fernandez – 3.67

Gomez – 4.62

Hazard – 4.41

Salah (C) – 15.34 (7.67 x 2)

Sterling (VC) – 5.28

Aguero – 5.48

Firmino – 5.62

Diouf – 3.51

Bench:

Elliot – 1.05

Gudmundsson – 3.51

Milivojevic – 3.16

Holgate – 1.50

5 months ago No Comments

Goalscorer Probabilities and Expected Points – Gameweek 28

With only 11 more weeks in the season, we are unsurprised to see Mohamed Salah top of the expected point scorers for GW28 closely followed by Harry Kane, two players who could be arguably considered essential in the run in. Salah is head and shoulders above the rest of the league with 7.67 expected points, followed by Harry Kane at 6.08, with Mane close behind at 6.04. A week for Spurs and Liverpool players.

Forwards

Roberto Firmino represents good value @ 9.3M following the exit of Phillipe Coutinho. With Salah also in the side, it allows Firmino to play in a more advanced role in the side. He has picked up 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 Premier League starts.

Callum Wilson represents a cheap 3rd striker option at just 6M. Bournemouth faces Newcastle in GW28 and the following fixtures are quite appealing too. He could easily pick up a couple of goals between now and the end of March.

Midfielders

If you do not have Salah in your team at this stage in the season then you need to have a serious chat with yourself about your FPL future. Salah is a must have for every team at the moment. He is in the form of his life and pulling the strings in the Liverpool attack. He has the ability to pop up with a goal against any opposition. He could easily bag 2 or 3 vs West Ham here on Saturday.

Raheem Sterling is my selection in the Man City midfield this week. Sterling is 1.6M cheaper than De Bruyne at the moment which helps if you want to get a big name in your squad. I’m sure Man City will be keen to make amends following their exit in the FA Cup midweek.

Defenders

Virgil Van Dijk is expected to be the highest scoring defender according to the bookmakers in GW28. Liverpool are at home to West Ham on Saturday afternoon and they should be able to keep a clean sheet against a Hammers’ side who often struggle in front of goal.

Craig Dawson is my punt of the week for GW28. He popped up with a goal in GW23 and has played at least 60 minutes in all the games he has featured in this season. West Brom are at home to Huddersfield and I’d expect this game to be a pretty dull contestby all accounts. Might be worth a fiver on the 0-0 🙂

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5 months ago No Comments

Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 28#FPL

Liverpool are top of the table this week with 50.97% chance of keeping a clean sheet. VVD coming in to tighten up the defence has evidently changed the bookies odds on the likelihood that Liverpool will concede. West Brom are second this week despite  4 players stealing a taxi whilst on holidays. Gareth Barry, Jonny Evans, Jake Livermore and Boaz Myhill were involved in the incident and it’s unknown if they’ll feature. West Brom do have a 48.63% chance of keeping a clean sheet against Huddersfield.

Arsenal face Man City this week and their defensive players are definitely ones to avoid with just a 16.19% chance of stopping City. West Ham are bottom of the table as they face Liverpool in Anfield. They have just a 7.64% chance of stopping Salah and Co.

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5 months ago No Comments
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