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How to use Game Week 35’s Free Hit #FPL

This post is based off of our Expected Points post which will be posted later on this evening, with all of players being brought in based off of bookie’s odds and likelihoods of scoring, whilst also fitting within a 100m budget.

An ideal free hit XI would include:

GK: Jack Butland: 5.0m – 3.59
DEF: Trent Alexander-Arnold: 4.4m – 4.36
DEF: Nicolas Otamendi: 6.3m – 5.57
DEF: Shkodran Mustafi:  5.5m – 4.53
MF: Sadio Mane: 9.3 – 4.84
MF: Mohamed Salah: 10.5m – 7.19 (C)
MF: Raheem Sterling: 8.7m – 6.34 (VC)
MF: Wilfried Zaha: 6.9m – 4.35
FW: Gabriel Jesus: 10.0m – 5.28
FW: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang: 10.7m – 5.79
FW: Chris Wood: 6.3m – 4.28

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In total the players would amass a total of 56.12 points, when accounting for the double captain points the tally would equate to 63.31 points. A supreme tally based off of the fixtures.

3.59 + 4.36 + 5.57 + 4.53 + 4.84 + (7.19 x 2) + 6.34 + 4.35 + 5.28 + 5.79 + 4.28

The starting XI has 3 City players, Sterling Otamendi and Jesus, the 3 highest expected City players meaning no more can be chosen. We have chosen the 3 most likely point scorers from the attackers with Wood, Jesus and Aubameyang all expected to score higher than Firmino, Tosun and Benteke.

In Midfield we can only choose one City midfielder due to choosing Otamendi and Jesus, so we chose the highest performing player Sterling. We also had to choose Salah who was 10.5m, who is this week’s captain. We also bring in Sadio Mane, who is a a 9.5m man, and brings in 4.84 points.

5.0 + 4.4 + 6.3 + 5.5 + 9.5 + 10.5 + 8.7 + 6.9 + 10 + 10.7 + 6.3 = 83.8

As for the bench we’ve chosen the cheapest possible options except for Long which is a 4.0, instead of a 3.9. Sometimes its safe to have a bench player worst case scenario a starter doesn’t start. We have 2 players on the bench which are likely to start in Long and King which gives us some balance to a Free hit Squad.

Maenpaa 3.9
Long 4.0
Mbemba 3.9
Andy King 4.2

In total the bench costs us another 16m bringing the grand total to 99.8m. This team should help you shoot up the ranks using your free hit.

3 months ago No Comments

OddsOnFPL – Gameweek 34 Preview #FPL

Hi everyone, this is a weekly blog post where we document changes to our team based on bookie’s odds. We have been doing this since game week one and have shared with you our progress and regression thus far. This is not a wildcard XI, or a team of the best possible players, this is an actual team which we have had since GW1 and have made changes to throughout the season. Currently, we’re 619,504th in the world and aim to be top 1% by the end of the season with the help of the bookies. To view the team click the following link: OddsonFPLTeam

To join our league use the following code: Auto-Join Link

With no odds, we’ve had to make some assumptions this week. We’ve made a -8 hit to bring in Valencia for the injured Gomez, Salah out for Pogba, Dawson out for Davies from Spurs. With all 3 players coming in on double game weeks the scores should be enough to warrant the big hit. Good luck as always! A short post due to going to a Dublin Derby. We’ve also bench boosted this week due to having 15 playing players. Captained Pogba, VC Valencia.

3 months ago No Comments

Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 34 #FPL

Well, folks, the big week has arrived. The chance to take over the dead teams who have been getting lucky! A DGW where people have been deciding to Bench Boost/TC/Free Hit. We’ve done an analysis based off of teams which are likely to get on clean sheet and which are likely to get at least 2. Some teams this week are more likely to get a clean sheet in one fixture than some sides are in 2, namely Bournemouth, which shows that sometimes too much importance is placed upon the double game week.

DO’S

Bailly, De Gea and Valencia are all the most likely nailed on for United. Owners of these will be expecting a minimum of 8 points with an expected clean sheet against  West Brom. Bournemouth are the second fixture for United this week so maximum clean sheet points is not impossible. United are 81.17% to get at least 1 clean sheet, a massive probability, which unfortunately due to rotation leaves only premium options only.

Azpi is most likely nailed on for Chelsea, with Moses and Alonso slight rotation risks, but the fixtures are Saturday and Thursday which means rotation may not be that likely.

Burnley have a number of options which look tasty, Tarkowski is nailed on and with Mee’s yellow flag he is likely to play both fixtures. Pope is a rotation risk, but could still be the first choice.

DON’TS

Manchester City defenders are best to avoid considering their recent performance and they come up against Harry Kane who can score goals despite not touching the ball.

Bournemouth are more leaky than Liverpool’s team information prior to kick-off with the Cherries conceding left right and centre. It is advised to ignore them due to their incapability to defend amongst many other things, but with a DGW you could expect at least 2 points from their defenders. Over the two fixtures that is.

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3 months ago No Comments

OddsOnFPL – Gameweek 33 Preview #FPL

Hi everyone, this is a weekly blog post where we document changes to our team based on bookie’s odds. We have been doing this since game week one and have shared with you our progress and regression thus far. This is not a wildcard XI, or a team of the best possible players, this is an actual team which we have had since GW1 and have made changes to throughout the season. Currently, we’re 619,504th in the world and aim to be top 1% by the end of the season with the help of the bookies. To view the team click the following link: OddsonFPLTeam

To join our league use the following code: Auto-Join Link

I have something to admit…. We may have missed last week’s transfers, we may have gotten slightly lucky with Mili coming off the bench, but boy are we happy we can bring in 2 players this week. With a bomb in the bank we’ve brought in Marcos Alonso for Mason Holgate, and we’ve brought in Jamie Vardy for Steve Mounie. With Wilson playing the DGW he remains a better option than Mounie. Salah captains again this week with Alonso vice-captain. We have Alonso, Smalling, Hazard, Gudmundsson, Wilson and Alex McCarthy who play in GW34’s DGW, so we’re in decent stead when you consider Salah and Firmino are almost worth of DGW points alone most weeks. Hopefully, we boost up the rankings this week.

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3 months ago No Comments

Goalscorer Probabilities and Expected Points – Gameweek 33

Another week, another Salah top of the expectancy. Are you even surprised any more?

FORWARDS

Between now and the end of the season you want a forward that you can put faith in to get you them sought-after goals. Bobby Firmino at 9.7M is a solid option I think and he should see plenty action against an Everton side who are mid-table at the moment. Finally, at this end of the season, you need a differential to help you gain some valuable ground in your money leagues.

At 5.3M, I’d be willing to take a punt on Ashley Barnes for Burnley. The Burnley fixtures between now and the end of the season are ok and he also has the double gameweek in GW34.

MIDFIELDERS

Another week and another post that mentions Mo Salah. The man cannot be ignored in his current form. He scored a late winner vs Crystal Palace at the weekend and in his current form he’s a player you’d expect to get an attacking return from against any opposition.

At the other end of the price scale, Luka Milojevic who costs 4.9M at the time of writing this post is another who should not miss out on any action barring injury or squad rotation. He scored in the defeat the Liverpool at the weekend which should see him secure his place for the coming trip to Bournemouth on Saturday.

DEFENDERS

Following on from the clean sheets article by Shano for GW33, it should come as no suprise to have Marcos Alonso as the predicted top scoring defender in this gameweek. Chelsea are at home to West Ham on Sunday evening. Alonso should pose an attacking threat with his free kicks and he should keep things tight at the back against a West Ham team who are trying to stay out of a relegation battle.

Looking at a more long term pick with GW35 in mind, Shkodran Mustafi for Arsenal looks decent value. The fixtures for Arsenal are favourable between now and the Man Utd game in GW36. At 5.4m, he’s certainly one to keep in mind.

 

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3 months ago No Comments

Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 33 #FPL

The calm before the storm this week. Chelsea are top of the table this week despite getting mauled by Spurs in GW32.The Hammers travel to Stamford Bridge. Hard to think Chelsea will lose two London Derbies back to back. They have a 58.11% chance of keeping a clean sheet.

Derby day on Saturday Liverpool travel to Goodison in what could be an absolute thrashing to Everton. Everton have just a 16.13% chance of stopping Salah and the lads.Probably best to avoid Manchester United defenders this week given they have just a 17.43% chance of keeping a clean sheet against City.

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3 months ago No Comments

Goalscorer Probabilities and Expected Points – Gameweek 32

With the blank game week gone and an incredibly high scoring week thanks to one beautiful Egyptian we move into GW32 with a reliance again on Mohamed Salah for points.

FORWARDS

Roberto Firmino looks another good additon to have as a long term transfer for those who do not already have him in their side. Bobby has been in good form and at 9.7M he looks good value. Liverpool face Crystal Palace and one can be sure he will see many chances.
Romelu Lukaku looks an obvious choice as Manchester United face Swansea. United also have the double game week in GW34 before you transfer him out for GW35. I expect the Swansea defence to have a long day at Old Trafford on Saturday.

MIDFIELDERS

At this stage in the season,if you do not have Mo Salah in your team you need to have a think with yourself. The man is playing like a man possessed. One can be sure that Liverpool will be doing their best to ensure Salah can break the Premier League goalscoring record. Mo has scored in 20 of his 30 Premier League appearances and providing he scored vs Crystal Palace at the weekend, he would equal the number of matches scored in a 38 game season.
Once again looking at the more long term pick I have again opted for a Burnley player. This one comes in the form of Johann Gudmundsson. Like mentioned above Burnley will not be affected by blank game weeks and it will be big help to you in a few weeks If you can have as as many active players in the blank week.

DEFENDERS

Manchester United are at home to Swansea on Saturday afternoon and I think Antonio Valencia is a worthy selection in your side for the next 3 game weeks. Valencia will pose an attacking threat from right back and you can be sure he’ll pickup a few clean sheet points too.
Looking at a more long term defender to have for the rest of the season, I think James Tarkowski represents good value. Burnley will be not affected by blank game weeks and the Burnley center back will be in high spirits following his England debut during the International Break.

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4 months ago No Comments

Clean Sheet Probabilities – Gameweek 32 #FPL

FINALLLLLLLYYYYYYY FPL has returned. After a boring international break and no doubt lots of tweaking of teams as it comes to the business end of the season.The next few weeks are going to be crucial.

Manchester United are clear favourites to keep a clean sheet this week with a 65.01% chance.(I wouldn’t will anyone opt to captain a United defender…) Newcastle(48.20%) make the top 3 as they face Huddersfield who are terrible at scoring.

Stoke(10.73%), Swansea(10.89%)Everton(12.26%) and Crystal Palace(12.63%) are all ones to avoid this week. I’ll be amazed if any of these teams to manage to keep a clean sheet given the teams they face.

 

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4 months ago No Comments

OddsOnFPL – Gameweek 31 Preview #FPL

Two transfers this week. Callum Wilson in for Kane and Begovic in for Rob Elliot. Captain Salah. Vc Firmino. Happy Paddy’s day.

4 months ago No Comments

Goalscorer Probabilities and Expected Points – Gameweek 31

The blank game week has been a long time coming, and nothing quite prepares someone for the fixtures this game week offers. Only 4 players have a point expectancy of 5 or more and you’d be right in guessing that they would be Liverpool players. Of our top 8 players, 8 of them are Liverpool players, while Bournemouth defenders creep ahead of Stoke’s Chuopo Moting and Bournemouth attackers Callum Wilson and Junior Stanislas.

This week’s most likely point scorer is Mohamed Salah with 7.26 points, followed closely by Sadio Mane and Virgil van Dijk. You would be mad to consider anyone other than the Egyptian a viable option. At OddsOnFPL we understand that you may want a differential, but with 6 game weeks after this one, you’d be best off going with the player who is 1.54 points better off than the second most likely.

While people are looking for a striker to replace Kane, Roberto Firmino is the best option at 4.96 points, while Callum Wilson is the only attacker outside of Liverpool with a point expectancy above 4.00, with recent riser Steve Mounie only at 3.75 points. For 0.25 points worth of a -4, it might be worth taking a punt on Mounie, or Benteke (3.51).

As for people who are considering bringing in a GW31 keeper, the two best options are Karius and Asmir Begovic, though I believe Jack Butland could score more than his expected 3.42 points.

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4 months ago No Comments
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